B&M Hand - analysis please

[LordBaldrick]

Context: I had been playing for about 30-45 mins and had been doing very well. I had Raised people out of 3 hands and had one All-In confrontation where I showed down AA to win the pot. My stack had gone from the $200 Buy-in up to about $800. The Blinds are $2/3. The Villain in this hand is the character who I showed down my AA to after putting him AI after the Flop.

The Hand:
Hero - Me! AJo. I am the first in and Raise to $20. I get 4 Callers. (Pot $103)

The Flop comes: A56 rainbow and I bet $50 and get Reraised another $100 (the villain was the 2nd Caller preflop) - all others Fold and I Call. (Pot $403)

The Turn is another Ace. I Check and the villain bets $250. I have aprroximately $600 left in my stack and the villain has me covered. What do I do? Or, what do you think I should have done differently to this point?

My analysis was along these lines:

Villains possible hands I'm beating: AT, A9, A8, A7, A4, A3, and A2 = 28 combinations.
Villains possible hands I'm behind: AK, AQ, A6, A5, 66 and 55 = 20.
Split if he has AJ = 3.
Could he have had 56?

cheers

LB

[Andrew Karpinski]

I'd just limp in preflop and probably fold the flop, as fishy live players usually don't raise the flop with just an ace.

[LordBaldrick]

Just looking at your photo - can you teach me how to drink coffee like that? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[r1base14]

I kind of wish you had seen more hands that Villain had raised with, or at least bet the flop with. What did he have when you felted him w AA ont he flop? It seems to me that unless Villain is a complete donk and thinks any A is good there, that you can safely fold to his flop raise. The only hand I could see him having that you dont fear because it is vulnerable is 56. I don't see a weaker A than yours raising you here. In fact, I think it is likely that he called your pf raise w AQ or AK, putting you in BAD shape. In my experience, live players are much more easy to read than online. Online I could easily see him raised on a draw like 78 there.

Ryan

[LordBaldrick]

Thanks Ryan. It was only my second time playing live but what you say already rings true. I also had him for AK/AQ when I was thinking of laying down postflop. However, the upshot was that I put him AI and he beat me with A5. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Percula]

Limping PF is horible. Your PF play is fine.

You are either way ahead or way behind here. You are going to have to go with your gut feeling here.

Hands that have you crushed that make sense; 55, 66, AK, AQ. Hands that you crush 56, Ax which are all posible.

[swarm]

"Hero - Me! AJo. I am the first in and Raise to $20. I get 4 Callers. (Pot $103)"

I think that calling that flop re-raise out of position with AJ with 5 to a flop is SUICIDE. Especially this deep. With 5 people seeing a flop top pair, decent kicker is rarely winning a pot.

Fold to the flop raise.

"Villains possible hands I'm beating: AT, A9, A8, A7, A4, A3, and A2 = 28 combinations."

Very few of these hands are raising the flop, they are going to call. Especially with your image, you have only shown down good hands. It seems to me that your tought process in this hand is very skewed to the "put villan on a hand I can beat" mentality.

After how you played this hand I would be instantly targeting you at the table. Over plays top pair ok kicker aka stackadonk.

[LordBaldrick]

[ QUOTE ]
"Hero - Me! AJo. I am the first in and Raise to $20. I get 4 Callers. (Pot $103)"

I think that calling that flop re-raise out of position with AJ with 5 to a flop is SUICIDE. Especially this deep. With 5 people seeing a flop top pair, decent kicker is rarely winning a pot.

Fold to the flop raise.

"Villains possible hands I'm beating: AT, A9, A8, A7, A4, A3, and A2 = 28 combinations."

Very few of these hands are raising the flop, they are going to call. Especially with your image, you have only shown down good hands. It seems to me that your tought process in this hand is very skewed to the "put villan on a hand I can beat" mentality.

After how you played this hand I would be instantly targeting you at the table. Over plays top pair ok kicker aka stackadonk.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Very few of these hands are raising the flop, they are going to call."

Hmm, thanks. This point certainly rings true now. I should have adjusted the hand possibilities, or at least their likelihood. Oh well, I'll read them better the more I play. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[r1base14]

at least tell me he called the pf raise w A5 suited lol. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the results, but just shift your thouight process. i, personally, am still trying to regulate my process to get away from the what can i beat mentality, as opposed to the what can he have and how many of those hands can ibeat?