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Villain in the hand has been on the table for about 1 orbit. I've got ~T3600, he covers with ~T5100, sitting 2 seats to my left. He's been loose, getting involved in a few minor pots while here, but not showing down, and most/all of his stack came from other table. Not overly aggressive play amongst those hands that I saw. Blinds are 50/100. Average stack is about T3600, still pretty early.
I open in MP for T250 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Bet sizes of 2.5x were actually taking the blinds somewhat often at this table, and I didn't really mind taking a flop with the hand if I didn't take the blinds. Easily fold to a reraise. Villain is the only caller. Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Not ideal, but still a very good flop for me. Villain likely doesn't have an overpair (with no reraise pf) or a 7. I lead for 450. Villain calls. Given this call, I believe villain's range is PP TT or below, some T, or 89s. Unlikely, but outside chance he could have a gutshot with J8s or J9s. I have a PP (other than TT or 77) crushed, but most T's that he could have would have me in bad shape. Balanced out somewhat if he could have T8s or T9s. Turn: (T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Pot: T1550 Bad - J kicker doesn't help much especially when the 8 and 7 are on the board already. Several hands I was ahead of on the flop have just passed me. Good - Turn gives me an inside straight-flush draw to go with top pair. A ton of outs if behind unless he's full. I've got ~T2900. It's still pretty early in this thing, so I'll have to pick up a lot of chips to win one of the 8-9 seats. I suppose that's a good reason to gamble. If I get much action though, I'm likely behind (with lots of outs, plus some for split). What's the plan here and for the rest of the hand? |
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