Create your own line

chan123bet · #1 06-25-2006, 12:25 PM

So I've heard that most successful bettors make their own line for a game, just wanna know how you guys actually do it? I've got my line too but it's not so accurate in comparison to what the real lines are. What formulas do u guys use?

would love to start researching on this topic, any links/comments/articles are welcomed

I, for one, use formula like Score= PF*PA/Lea.PF and (PF^1.82)/(PF^1.82+PA^1.82) when i create line for baseball, but don't know how a starting pitcher affects the line really [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I use FIPS to determine who is a better pitcher but apart from that I really have no idea on how the line is affected

testaaja · #2 06-25-2006, 12:59 PM

I'm really interested in this stuff too (basically soccer). I tried to make an own 'model' but it went [censored] so I just dropped it. I'd be interested in any information. I've got information for NBA and stuff like that but I want it for soccer (or tennis) because that's my main interest. Thanks.

youtalkfunny · #3 06-25-2006, 09:44 PM

I've only done it for football.

Just guess. After a while, if you have a clue, your guesses won't be "way off".

Look for patterns in the "way offs". For example, most new linesmakers don't give home-ice advantage its proper respect, especially when the favorite is on the road. They also fail to recognize that division rivals usually play close games (it's been 100 years since a Jets-Dolphins game didn't have the home team -3).

chan123bet · #4 06-25-2006, 10:02 PM

yeah but you still need a formula of some sort to create the odds?

The one I'm using for ATS and totals in football and basketball is team1 score = (team1 pf)*(team2 pa)/lea.pf which is pretty close to opening lines on pinny.

Any formulas to share?

testaaja · #5 06-26-2006, 05:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Any formulas to share?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think not because everyone has their own way to make these things out. I had a nice link collection for nba but I've lost it [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

kjander · #6 06-26-2006, 01:23 PM

I dont' really like formulas here is my thought.

If you had a formula for make lines based on a 3 or 4 stats I don't really see how much good that would do you to make the lines before they come out. Odds say the line makers are going to make a more educated line than this. When your line and the actual line are compared and way off it doesn't necessarily scream that you need to max bet the line, but that there might be some underlying factors you need to consider to make your line more accurate.

I belive this is why a lot of people go by feel and researching stats rather than assigning them a value in a equation.

mrbaseball · #7 06-26-2006, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I belive this is why a lot of people go by feel and researching stats rather than assigning them a value in a equation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably why so many sportsbettors are long term losers. I use formulas first (rather extensive, much more than 3 or 4 stats), then I apply common sense. Lines are often "wrong" because of faulty public perception (ie the guys betting feel).

Homer · #8 06-26-2006, 02:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I belive this is why a lot of people go by feel and researching stats rather than assigning them a value in a equation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably why so many sportsbettors are long term losers. I use formulas first (rather extensive, much more than 3 or 4 stats), then I apply common sense. Lines are often "wrong" because of faulty public perception (ie the guys betting feel).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why people are so opposed to formulas. All they do is incoporate what is likely to effect the outcome of a game without letting personal bias get in the way. And if the line it spits out is way off from what you think it should be, that simply means there are still other variables that must be incorporated into your formula.

GreenLizard · #9 06-29-2006, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Probably why so many sportsbettors are long term losers. I use formulas first (rather extensive, much more than 3 or 4 stats), then I apply common sense. Lines are often "wrong" because of faulty public perception (ie the guys betting feel).

[/ QUOTE ]

mrbaseball, question for you: I'm getting started in sports betting this year and want to be able to cap games myself.

Can you point me in the right direction for gathering the data necessary for capping baseball games? (Basketball too, if you happen to know.) I'm not looking for your formulas, but just some hints on where to start.

thanks

mrbaseball · #10 06-29-2006, 06:37 PM

I take a variety of statistics I feel are important from overall team performance, offense, starting pitching and relief pitching. Then I weight them and compare the two teams on a relative basis and my spreadsheet spits out a line. Often this line is very accurate. The ones that seem to have bettable edges I dig into deeper (travel considerations, bullpen rest etc etc etc) and decide if they are worthy of risk or not.

I don't know dick about basketball. I hate the NBA but love hoops. I do okay in hoops by fading published consensus and then concentrating on home team dogs. Nothing scientific. My 3 parameters in hoops are bet against the public, get points, and be at home (or neutral court). If I've got those 3 I'm good to go.