Can I overcall this river?

[12ressiMorP]

UTG stats are 54/13/.8, BB stats are 55/41/3. He's the same lag in my other post who has been playing maniacal at this time (probably around 70/50/5 over last 100). I think I probably f'd up on this one at some point pre-river but my head was spinning at this table.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10.75BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (16.75BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero

[counterspell]

ewww. i hate spots like this.
you do have to call this, because the probability of BB being totally fos again times the probability of UTG being a total calling station and refusing to let go of a queen with no spade is significantly larger than 5%.

[Xyven]

I really hate it but I think you have to fold. If UTG wasn't calling I call, but I really dont think you can overcall here. One of them turns over a [censored] flush almost always with this action.

[Moneyline]

On the flop I think a better play is to just call the 3bet with the intention of popping the turn if a non spade hits. You aren't really hurting a big spade draw by putting in a lot of money on the flop. Even with a maniac in the pot I 'd rather wait and see.

On the river I'd probably fold, but I don't think this decision isn't all that important since the chances of you being good should be right around the 18.75: 1 that you are getting. It's not a clear decision and even if you're wrong it won't be much of a mistake.

Just my opinion...

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I think a better play is to just call the 3bet with the intention of popping the turn if a non spade hits. You aren't really hurting a big spade draw by putting in a lot of money on the flop. Even with a maniac in the pot I 'd rather wait and see.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would take this further and smooth call the flop!