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#2
06-24-2006, 01:12 PM
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Re: BB Middles
Ok, I think I figured out the math -
$100 bet means I lose $33.5 when I miss the middle and win $200 when the middle comes in. Which means I need to be right 1 in 6 times to break even. Since I think there is a 13% chance of OAK winning by one, I actually need to be right 1 in 7.7 times. A little shy on this one, but the methodology is correct? On a side note, what does the book think about this bet? Ok to make with the same book, or no? Thanks. 
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#5
06-24-2006, 01:58 PM
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Re: BB Middles
Here's how I do it. Oakland is a -129 favorite (actually more if you ask me as I like them at this price) but we'll go with the -129 line which says they should win 56.5% of the time. Now we will assume they win 13% of their road games by one run. Actually I think 13% is too high but we will use it for this example.
The line says Oak wins 56.5% of the time and SF wins 43.5% of the time. Our expected outcome is negative. 43.5% of the time Oakland wins by more than one and we lose .38 13% of the time Oakland wins by one and we win 2. 43.5% SF wins and we lose .29 So ... 43.5%*(-38) = -16.53, 13%*200 = 26, and 43.5% * (-29) = -12.61. So 26-16.53-12.61 = -3.14
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#6
06-25-2006, 09:03 AM
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Re: BB Middles
[ QUOTE ]
Here's how I do it. Oakland is a -129 favorite (actually more if you ask me as I like them at this price) but we'll go with the -129 line which says they should win 56.5% of the time. Now we will assume they win 13% of their road games by one run. Actually I think 13% is too high but we will use it for this example. The line says Oak wins 56.5% of the time and SF wins 43.5% of the time. Our expected outcome is negative. 43.5% of the time Oakland wins by more than one and we lose .38 13% of the time Oakland wins by one and we win 2. 43.5% SF wins and we lose .29 So ... 43.5%*(-38) = -16.53, 13%*200 = 26, and 43.5% * (-29) = -12.61. So 26-16.53-12.61 = -3.14 [/ QUOTE ] Very good example.
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