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#1081
06-22-2006, 09:52 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
MDoran, you're probably confused, which is understandable. However, it's very clear that you're the real errand, and my post above explains it. Here it is again: If we fake-erraned, and named garion or ce'nedra, we'd lose. They would play along and get us to out all of our bad guys, or they'd come out with who they really are. Either way we're screwed. [/ QUOTE ] And if they play along but you don't come out you just set up garion or whoever to be lynched by the village. Sure - there's a risk you'd pick Asharak - but a far higher chance you get the village to lynch either a plain villager or better yet a low-lieing power character whose claims after playing along with you will never be trusted. The claims of "we didn't know if Errand had bee nseen" are pretty ludicrous. The rules clearly state that if a sorceror sees Errand ALL PLAYERS are told. So come morning with no such announcement made EVERYONE knew Errand had still not been viewed. 
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#1083
06-22-2006, 09:55 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 1. As I've already explained there's NO advantage to them in identifying the real errand. Thier best bet is to name the non-errand villager they believe is most likely to vote with them. That then leaves them the real errand as a fall-back situation. [/ QUOTE ] This is really an excellent point. There is NO need for the bad guys to identify the real Errand, since no one has any way of verifying that knowledge until it is too late. They just need to name the person they think is most likely to backstab the village. Again, take the point that Errand pretty convienently WASN'T WDC or myself, and also remember Jonsan asking questions about what people would do if the evil guys told them they were Errand. [/ QUOTE ] If you're in our position, do you just blindly go ahead and out everyone without knowing that errand will go along? Even more importantly, do you do any of this if errand isn't even around? We had to know if he was here and active, so we couldn't say anything until we knew he was here in the thread. If we name errand, and he's not around, we end up in a coinflip and traz might get his look. We needed to make sure we'd at least get a chance to convince errand. [/ QUOTE ] How can you ever KNOW that Errand (whether real or fake) will go along? If he tells you he will then somehow you magically know whether he's telling the truth or not and expose yourselves on that basis?
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#1084
06-22-2006, 09:56 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
The claims of "we didn't know if Errand had bee nseen" are pretty ludicrous. The rules clearly state that if a sorceror sees Errand ALL PLAYERS are told. So come morning with no such announcement made EVERYONE knew Errand had still not been viewed. [/ QUOTE ] You're an idiot. It has already been stated FROM THE MODS that we didn't have to give our night action until they told us whether Errand had been seen. We did not have confirmation until this morning. I was up until about 12:30 EST and VR didn't know at that point. Ask Traz to confirm this. EDIT: The mods were in our chat last night (and probably with Traz and Dank, too). They gave us updates on Errand's status.
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#1085
06-22-2006, 09:57 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] MDoran, you're probably confused, which is understandable. However, it's very clear that you're the real errand, and my post above explains it. Here it is again: If we fake-erraned, and named garion or ce'nedra, we'd lose. They would play along and get us to out all of our bad guys, or they'd come out with who they really are. Either way we're screwed. [/ QUOTE ] And if they play along but you don't come out you just set up garion or whoever to be lynched by the village. Sure - there's a risk you'd pick Asharak - but a far higher chance you get the village to lynch either a plain villager or better yet a low-lieing power character whose claims after playing along with you will never be trusted. The claims of "we didn't know if Errand had bee nseen" are pretty ludicrous. The rules clearly state that if a sorceror sees Errand ALL PLAYERS are told. So come morning with no such announcement made EVERYONE knew Errand had still not been viewed. [/ QUOTE ] Geez, do you guys even read a [censored] word I say? I said this: [ QUOTE ] We didn't know until after our chat was mostly over that patton and traz HADN'T SEEN ERRAND. It's kind of hard to plan for about 10 different situations (see/don't see errand, kill seer, kill garion, kill asharak, kill villager, get blocked, etc). [/ QUOTE ] Get it? We didn't know until about 90 minutes into our chat that the seers hadn't seen errand. Most of the guys were already gone. We had a few contingencies in place in case we killed the other seer, but nothing was completely concrete. We're not going to make people stay around for a couple of hours, waiting on seers who might not even send in their looks until the morning. You guys are just going way way way too far and convoluted here. I've said it so many times - Occam's Razor - we have a very very simple path to victory. It's the path we're following. Tell errand who he is, he voted with us, we win. Done. End of story.
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#1086
06-22-2006, 09:59 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 1. As I've already explained there's NO advantage to them in identifying the real errand. Thier best bet is to name the non-errand villager they believe is most likely to vote with them. That then leaves them the real errand as a fall-back situation. [/ QUOTE ] This is really an excellent point. There is NO need for the bad guys to identify the real Errand, since no one has any way of verifying that knowledge until it is too late. They just need to name the person they think is most likely to backstab the village. Again, take the point that Errand pretty convienently WASN'T WDC or myself, and also remember Jonsan asking questions about what people would do if the evil guys told them they were Errand. [/ QUOTE ] If you're in our position, do you just blindly go ahead and out everyone without knowing that errand will go along? Even more importantly, do you do any of this if errand isn't even around? We had to know if he was here and active, so we couldn't say anything until we knew he was here in the thread. If we name errand, and he's not around, we end up in a coinflip and traz might get his look. We needed to make sure we'd at least get a chance to convince errand. [/ QUOTE ] How can you ever KNOW that Errand (whether real or fake) will go along? If he tells you he will then somehow you magically know whether he's telling the truth or not and expose yourselves on that basis? [/ QUOTE ] We don't KNOW anything. I've said all along that this plan is based on errand following us. If we had another way that had the same or better probability, we'd go with it. We don't.
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#1087
06-22-2006, 10:01 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
[ QUOTE ]
Pud, I hope we win the game, but I KNOW we aren't going to win this discussion. I said I was shutting up before, so now I really need to. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, it's up to mdoran. If Jonsan ever gets here...
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#1088
06-22-2006, 10:01 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
1 hour left. I didnt want to spend this much time on here tonight. My friends are like "WTF???". So i hate you guys for telling me Im Errand wether I am or not. My birthday plans have basically been put on hold, because I didnt want to leave and screw over my buddies (that Ive never met) in some stupid online game. So I repeat...you guys all suck.
I have weighed both sides. It seems like they naming the wrong Errand seemed like a good play for the bad guys when someone brought it up. I started to think it was possible. But I cant get away from the feeling Ive had this whole game that I was Errand. When I took over for Greekhouse(when the game started), I thought I was Errand. When 11's said "I was the only one he trusted" before he was outted as a bad guy, it makes a little more sense. Add that to the fact that they picked the perfect person to pull this on. I am a villager. I do not have any special powers. I believe they have named the real Errand. They want to win, bottom line. They need my vote to win. If they are bluffing, its a great one pulled at the perfect time. As far as betraying the village...This is apparently the only way I can win. I have to play the win. vote pistolero
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#1090
06-22-2006, 10:08 PM
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Re: Belgariad game thread
MDD,
Last words I will have on the subject, as I have to go to work soon: The bad guys had about a 95% chance to win today, by assassinating Mandor today and hoping to kill traz on a coinflip lynch vote. There only way to lose, would be to lose the coinflip lynch AND for traz to see Errand before he is killed tonight. Because if traz does note see Errand, the bad guys can outvote the good guys on power tomorrow, with Brill back from his kill. Since the only way they can lose involves traz seeing Errand, they decide to improve their chances by setting up a fake Errand. If fake Errand goes along with it, great, they can kill Mandor and traz today an win before the day is out. If fake-errand does NOT go along with it, they assassinate Mandor instead, hope they kill traz on a coin flip. If they don't, they hope traz goes after the fake-Errand. They have thereby done NOTHING to hurt there chances, but done a lot to improve them. To be perfectly honest, I don't know that they thought quite this in depth about it (although with 4 of them thinking about it it seems likely). But it becomes more and more obvious that they had nothing to lose by naming a fake-Errand, and an almost sure victory to lose by naming a real Errand. It also becomes more and more obvious why they haven't killed traz yet.
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