$16turbo: AQ hows my line?

slimon · #1 06-22-2006, 12:57 PM

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1490)
UTG+1 (t1410)
MP1 (t2140)
MP2 (t1685)
MP3 (t1010)
CO (t1400)
Button (t1425)
SB (t1440)
Hero (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to t60, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t45, Hero calls t30

Flop: (t180) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t150, MP2 calls t150, SB folds

Turn: (t480) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t225, MP2 calls t225

River: (t930) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t330, Hero calls t330

Im so confused on what to do on the turn and the river help! Should I bet less on the flop?

NakedNoggin · #2 06-22-2006, 01:28 PM

Why did you check the river? I assume that you lost is why you are asking the questions. What did he have? Set?

glass_onion · #3 06-22-2006, 01:46 PM

a read on this guy would be nice...

in a turbo 3rd min raises. Assign probable hands. I would think really big hand, or marginal, so not qq, jj, tt type hands. More like aj at a9, ax suited, qk, qj, mid pairs.

Coordinatted flop. I don't think TJ ever min raises PF, or anything that gives this guy 2 pair would he raise PF. Based on the hands I think he might have, i'm losing to 88, 99, possibly he slowplayed (erronously) AA or KK. More likely are the AJ, AT AT A8 hands. I don't see min raise early from suited connectors like 67 78 9t tj.

He calls an almost pot bet...
5 hits. Again, I don't see him min raising even 67 suited, so the 5 was mostly harmless. I don't see a st8 call on A7 a6 either on flop, so what does this call mean?

Starting to look more like A9 A8 88 99 hands. I'd like to think KK or AA would spring thier trap my now. Also, pot is getting big and most donks don't like to get this far into a hand without a lock.

I figure a 6 river is meaningless. if he had a7 so be it. If he does have A9 A8 he will call river. If he has 88 99 you will have to call him if you check, unless he bets big, so I probably still bet. If i'm raised i'm done. His bet smells like a suck-bet. My guess is 99, very poorly played on his part since you were in the BB and could have had anything.

How'd I do?

fatmanonguitar · #4 06-22-2006, 01:50 PM

Flop - good bet

Turn - fine, I may bet ~300

River - As long as you realize folding is not an option. I don't think you induce a bluff here often enough to check. I may value bet. I'm putting villian on 77,TT,JJ,AT+. I guess betting the river will make you money from TT/JJ, lose you money from 77 and make no money from AT+. On second thought, check/calling may be more profitable.

glass_onion · #5 06-22-2006, 01:56 PM

really. You'd play TT or JJ, or AT+ against the BB that way. Calling flop and turn?

From villians perspective, what can BB have that he is betting out on flop and turn? Surely he has to be worried about BB drawing out on that board, especially on the turn.

fatmanonguitar · #6 06-22-2006, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
really. You'd play TT or JJ, or AT+ against the BB that way. Calling flop and turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say I'd play that way. Villains are morons.

What I deduced from the betting patterns is that the OP is very likely to be ahead on every street. AA/KK is almost surely raising that flop and while donks like to slowplay sets (even on coordinated boards), they usually won't smooth call both the flop AND turn.

So what likely PF raising hands are we ahead of on the flop and turn? 77,TT,JJ,AT+ (I guess we can include A8/9 as you did as well). The only one of those hands that improves to best on the river is 77 and this is probably the least likely in the range identified.

slimon · #7 06-22-2006, 02:00 PM

I checked on the river to get a cheap showdown because he called my flop and turn which scared me. Maybe i should of bet more on turn because he had k7 for the str8. Would betting 300 on the turn make any difference?

glass_onion · #8 06-22-2006, 02:02 PM

Interesting. Not nescessarily wrong, but perhaps I give my opponents more credit than they deserve.

glass_onion · #9 06-22-2006, 02:05 PM

k7????????????!!!!!!!!

Well, he's obviously terrible. Did you note this play? Be sure to value bet him in the future.

slimon · #10 06-22-2006, 02:05 PM

On the turn what is a standard bet?