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Two consecutive hands. Curious if anyone can calculate the odds of flopping a winning full house in a heads up pot and then getting outdrawn on the turn or river. I didn't slowplay either hand - in both cases there was betting on the flop and all the chips were in by the turn.
But in any case this is a probability post, not a strategy post. To simplify the calculation, assume villian always calls down and sees all 5 cards. There are at least two distinct scenarios (board has one pair or two pair), as illustrated below (actual hands): - Hand 1 - Hero has [44] Flop: KK4 Turn: Q River: 8 Villian flips over [QQ] and stacks hero. - Hand 2 - Hero has [88] Flop: KK8 Turn: J River: J Villian flips over [QJ] and stacks hero. In both hands hero started with a pocket pair. It would of course also be possible to start with unpaired cards (e.g. JT) and then see a JTT flop. I'd be interested in either calc (odds given hero starts with pp, and/or odds given hero starts with any two cards). |
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