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Old 06-20-2006, 06:05 AM
LCposter LCposter is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: fighting to keep a 2-digit ROI
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Default LC: Odds of flopping full house and losing on turn/river?

Two consecutive hands. Curious if anyone can calculate the odds of flopping a winning full house in a heads up pot and then getting outdrawn on the turn or river. I didn't slowplay either hand - in both cases there was betting on the flop and all the chips were in by the turn.

But in any case this is a probability post, not a strategy post. To simplify the calculation, assume villian always calls down and sees all 5 cards. There are at least two distinct scenarios (board has one pair or two pair), as illustrated below (actual hands):

- Hand 1 -

Hero has [44]
Flop: KK4
Turn: Q
River: 8

Villian flips over [QQ] and stacks hero.

- Hand 2 -

Hero has [88]
Flop: KK8
Turn: J
River: J

Villian flips over [QJ] and stacks hero.

In both hands hero started with a pocket pair. It would of course also be possible to start with unpaired cards (e.g. JT) and then see a JTT flop. I'd be interested in either calc (odds given hero starts with pp, and/or odds given hero starts with any two cards).
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