2/5 @ Wynn - big draw

JKratzer · #1 01-15-2006, 05:12 PM

Mid day on a Tuesday, villian is a young kid, seems pretty decent, haven't seen him do anything too out of line. My image is probably TAG. I have $450, villian covers.

I limp in MP with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. 2 limpers behind me, villian raises to $25 in BB. I call, limpers fold.

Flop ($60) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Villian checks (?) I bet $50, villian calls.

Turn ($160) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Villian bets $110, I ??

JKratzer

Hass · #2 01-15-2006, 05:13 PM

ALL IN

Alibut · #3 01-15-2006, 08:21 PM

The turned 9 is irritating as it makes both your draws clear if they hit.

If it wasn't for the 9 it would be a clear call (rather than push) for me.

Hmmm, I think you have minimal fold equity, so I still just call, given you have immediate pot odds even against QQ.

jrforman · #4 01-15-2006, 08:35 PM

I favor a call. His line reeks like a flopped set, but he is still giving you the odds to hit and I think the implied odds of getting paid off are high given my read of strength from villain, especially if a baby spade comes. Plus you have position.

snitty · #5 01-15-2006, 08:44 PM

new here, but call, you're getting near even odds, drawing to something like 18 outs unless he has trips, then it's less.

I wouldn't push if only because then all your stack is on the draw, rather than 1/2.

Marko Schmarko · #6 01-15-2006, 08:50 PM

I push.

I think Alibut underestimates your fold equity, and you have huge equity against almost any holding here. I doubt he check-calls TJ on the flop, and that's the only hand you have worse than 2:1 equity on...

Especially if he's a really thinking player, I think he could easily put you on a monster here and lay down something as good as AQ.

Edit: I also like pushing for metagame. It's nice to get paid off when you have TJ here and push, too.

BUT, I could buy a call. I don't think your implied odds are great, and there are some reverse implied odds issues, [especially since you're reasonably likely to be drawing to a chop for the straight], but your equity is good enough here, and his line could very well be a really powerful hand, so... I think it's a pretty marginal decision.

Isura · #7 01-15-2006, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ALL IN

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I agree. This is a live game and people play weird. He might even fold hands as good as two pair here.

Bill King · #8 01-15-2006, 10:45 PM

i would probably call here and base the river and what your opponents reaction is on what you do from there.

hands like this are the ones you want a decent sized bankroll to play correctly. they are big hands, and im pretty sure i couldnt lay this down here there are too many good cards.

JKratzer · #9 01-16-2006, 05:37 PM

I pushed. I thought I had pretty good fold equity, this player could definitely lay down AA or KK here, for example. That plus my outs made it seem like a good idea. Anyway, he had QQ for top set and called. I definitely didn't put him on this, but I caught an offsuit 6 on the river and MHIG.

Thanks for the replies,
JKratzer