10/20 350bb deep top 2 hand

[JamesRea]

This hand comes from one of the juiciest 6 max tables ive seen on party since they came about. Villain in this hand is unknown to me as I dont play party all that much nor do I have PT. He has been very loose passive preflop, calling a lot of my raises with less than speculative hands like J6o and other such nonsense, but seems to play pretty straightforward post flop. I havent seen him do anything out of line postflop in maybe an hour at the table. He starts this hand about $3500 deep and i cover. I have been basically running over the table raising preflop most hands and c-betting most flops. My image is certainly ultra lag. Its somewhat important to note that I have not shown down any double or triple barreled bluffs. No reason for villain to really think i am on air here.

PP 10/20 6 max
utg calls
Hero ($5500) raises to $70 Kd10d
CO villain ($3400)calls
2 folds
BB calls, limper calls

Flop ($290) Kh 2d 4d
2 checks
hero bets $210
Villain calls $210
others fold
Turn (710) Tc
Hero bets $450
villain calls $450

River($1610) 2h
Hero bets $950
Villain shoves
pot is $3510 and it is $1720ish more to call...

[king_of_drafts]

I call. I find myself playing too conservatively in this sort of situation, underestimating unknowns' capacity to pull big bluffs. You did imply he has a wide range, but most of it seems like it would've been played more aggressively postflop, even by pretty bad players. I think he raises a set by the turn. You can be wrong here half the time and still break even.

I also bet 600 on the turn I think, at least 550.

[aejones]

I don't see why Villian is raising anything like AK or KQ here obviously, so I think we only need to determine whether he has a monster or air.

Leading into a four way pot, and then betting every street, signifies strength. When Hero leads the river for value, Villian has to put him on a tight range of hands. The 2 looks like a blank, and should be viewed as such when determining whether or not to bluff. The weakest hands that Hero can lead with here are KT and AA, I think AK is often a c/c here unless hero knows Villian is a passive station. I think Hero has 44 and KK here as often as he has KT and AA, and unless Villian has some sort of strange read on Hero, I think he's got to give him credit for a big hand in that size of a pot, given stack sizes.

If Villian's hand range is that big preflop, and he's that loose/passive, then I think he could have a 2 in his hand. If he's shown down J6 before, I don't see why he couldn't have 42s or K2s. He could also have fours full, though it seems likely he'd raise with a set and draws on the board on the turn, he could also be giddy that someone is leading into him with such a big hand.

I don't think I see monster bluffs here that often when Hero has shown so much strength the entire hand. Given Villian's idea of Hero's range, I think I find a fold here, despite generous pot odds. This hand though, is very dependent on the opponent and table conditions.

[cero_z]

Hi James,

I'd say the Villain is obviously full here. This is the preferred line for flopping a set by donks everywhere.

This is not a difficult decision. There are plenty of busted draws on the river, and I doubt very much that Villain calls the turn with a 2. I also doubt he doesn't raise that draw heavy board on the turn with a set.

edit: You're also getting 2:1 on your money. You really don't have to be right all that often.

[TheWorstPlayer]

he's getting 3:1

[JamesRea]

These are the only reasons that I have to fold:
Villain has not done anything crazy
I have not played a river like this without a real hand so he should not put me on air.
Villain is loose preflop so 42 K2 are possible.

Here are my reasons to call:
My table image is very LAG and i dont think bad players connect the dots between a $70 raise pf and a $1000 raise on the river. When I come out and raise 4 hands in a row they just get the mentality that Im always bluffing, they dont even realize how different opening preflop and betting 4 streets is.
Villain is calling me preflop with any 2 suited so diamond draw is very likely as well as a hand like 35s.
Hes not calling me on the turn with a lone 2 so A2 <the deuce was a diamond so he couldnt have had a flush draw with it> and other such hands are out.

A friend of mine argued with me that this hand had to be a fold on the river but i disagree. If I had been playing like a nit then maybe i can fold here to the probable fours full, but with my image and against bad players i cannot fold a hand this big, on this board, getting 3 to 1.

That hand really isnt very interesting but let me ask a couple of more questions:

1.) My river bet here was a straight forward value bet to get money out of KQ and KJ and other such hands that these people had been loving to call me down with. But say here that I can narrow villains hand range down to a draw when he flat calls the turn 100% of the time. what is the best line to take on the river?

2.) If the river is an offsuit 7 and river play goes exactly the same as it did, would those people arguing for a fold opt instead to call?

3.) With same play and same board your hole cards are AA instead of K10. Who changes their play because of that?

[aejones]

I like the value bet because every worse king calls on the river, but another plausible line is checking to induce a bluff, assuming you have the best hand, but also because draws missed and you want to control pot size with deep stacks.

If the river is an offsuit 7 or 8, I change my decision to call.

I don't think AA plays all that differently from KT, except that Hero will have a harder time folding because it is, after all, pocket freakin aces- and that two off on the river looks cash money.

[luckychewy]

I agree with what you say, I would not fold. I'd expect to have heard from K2/42 before the river. What makes this different from him having K4? The 2 also highly discounts him flopping a set since KK probably RR PF and we have one, there is now only 1 combo of 22, and 44 is still possible. Taking all this into account I think it's a call.

1) If you know he has a draw either check it or bet small to induce a bluff, pretty opponent dependent.

2) I'd still call.

3) Not me.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]

1.) My river bet here was a straight forward value bet to get money out of KQ and KJ and other such hands that these people had been loving to call me down with. But say here that I can narrow villains hand range down to a draw when he flat calls the turn 100% of the time. what is the best line to take on the river?

2.) If the river is an offsuit 7 and river play goes exactly the same as it did, would those people arguing for a fold opt instead to call?

3.) With same play and same board your hole cards are AA instead of K10. Who changes their play because of that?

[/ QUOTE ]
1)obv checkcall any amt, easy.

2)i would... if it came 7c i think u gotta call the AI.

3)i will call this w/ AA... w/ KT i am actually worried about AA from him here.