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#1
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
Yeah why not. Keep in mind that I did this quick and also I'm a certified moron (you have to apply in the mail).
47 cards out. 30 cards, 63.8% lose you 1 SB. 3 cards, 6.4%, gain you (estimated) 12.5 SB. 8 cards, 17%, lead to backdoor flush, I did more math and got a gain of 1.6 SB. The 6 remaining backdoor str8 cards I assigned -.45 EV. I weighted things by multiplying (percent)x(EV), and got: -.638 +.8 +.27 -.45 = -.02 EV What you get is roughly a wash. This is where some people tell me that I didn't consider if you hit but then he rivers you, as well as some other low probability stuff, but I'm offsetting this by the times your ace-high is best and you outplay him, which is kind of the reason stoxtrader was giving. |
#2
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
If your ace-high is best, how are you planning on outplaying him? You're either slightly ahead or way behind here and you really will have a hard time realizing your equity (unless you plan on straight calling down).
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#3
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
If your ace-high is best, how are you planning on outplaying him? You're either slightly ahead or way behind here and you really will have a hard time realizing your equity (unless you plan on straight calling down). [/ QUOTE ] You hit one of your backdoor draw cards on your turn to stay in the hand. Then he either doesn't bluff the river, or he does bluff and you call. On a side note, I forgot to include equity for hitting your 3. |
#4
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If your ace-high is best, how are you planning on outplaying him? You're either slightly ahead or way behind here and you really will have a hard time realizing your equity (unless you plan on straight calling down). [/ QUOTE ] You hit one of your backdoor draw cards on your turn to stay in the hand. Then he either doesn't bluff the river, or he does bluff and you call. [/ QUOTE ] Presumably we can improve our earn rate somewhat by only calling down "safe" river cards. |
#5
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
which cards are safe here?
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#6
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
how do you know that you can offset bad rivers with the times your ace high is best? what if there is a significant difference (i.e. bad rivers will occur far more than ace high winning). Not explaining this well, just want to know how you can just cancel out these two events.
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#7
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
how do you know that you can offset bad rivers with the times your ace high is best? what if there is a significant difference (i.e. bad rivers will occur far more than ace high winning). Not explaining this well, just want to know how you can just cancel out these two events. [/ QUOTE ] In the math I did, bad river means bad river redraw when you hit the turn. So not only do you need to draw an ace to beat his pair, he needs to redraw a bad river against you. This is a very low probability event, and shouldn't affect EV much. I'm kind of hand-waving here and saying that if you can milk anything at all out of your ace-high showdown value, it will offset this improbable river redraw parlay. As Nate pointed out, by making an intelligent decision based on the river card, we should be able to get at some of that showdown value. |
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