Starting pitchers/ RA

[chan123bet]

How much effect does a starting pitcher have on runs allowed?

So I was doing some homework on tonight's game, BAL v TOR. In my calculations I have BAL at +291 and the line is +105 so apparently my line was way off, then I find out TOR's pitcher has a pathetic ERA of 10.29 so it must mean something to the line.. any info on the topic is appreicated, ty.

[greg44]

I'd say about 70% goes into the lines. However, I think it is lower then that depending on pitchers. If Halladay is pitching there probably right since he's so good and others etc... But with worse pitchers I think there is a lot to do w/ how good other team hits, home plate ump, elements, and bullpen plays a role in making the line.

[Bill C]

Downs is starting for Tor tonight. He's been in the bullpen where he hasn't been doing much good. He was a starter last year, and did poorly the first part of the season, but then came on later in the season and was quite respectable (using my ratings, at least.).

I think starting pitching is very important in making a line for MLB. I use it as the main thing, and I like to find pitchers who typically go 6 innings or more, and give up few HRs, and have a strikeout ratio of K's to innings approaching 1.0 (few go over that, though there are a couple around.) WHIP is also a stat I use. Covers.com has a nice sheet I use every day as my worksheet (hit the tab for "MLB" and the bottom item is called "Print Sheet").

I also look at the bullpens and like to see that none of their best set-ups or closers have been overworked in the last day or two. As for offense, there are a lot of ways to judge that, and I am sure you can find a good way.

So I make a line and then compare it to the line on one of the internet sites, and choose the overlays to bet on. Then I shop for the best line and make my bets.

Hope this is of some help. There are a lot of ways to do this work, and others may suggest some ways for you to proceed, too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

bill c

[crockpot]

also remember that how the pitcher matches up against the lineup is important. david sklansky gave an example of how bill russell's value was lower against a team with a low-scoring center. similarly, eric milton's value will be lower when he faces a homer-happy squad, and daniel cabrera's will be lower when he faces a lineup with good pitch selection. of course, it's up to you to judge whether this is already built into the line.