Preflop folds affecting odds?

[Shroomy]

I started as a blackjack player (often to my detriment)
Card Counting in blackjack is basically using the ratio of high cards to low cards to figure your odds.

Has anyone ever used a similar approach to poker?
For example in a 10 player game, it seems if 5 people folded to no raisers, that you would have a lower chance to hit your middle PP because there is a better chance that someone folded a hand with it preflop.

basicaly people tend to play higher cards, I wonder if there is an approach to adjust your odds to take that into account.

Obviously the same thing for calling .... I know if im on the button and there are a ton of people betting before me, I may drop KQ or AQ, not just because of the number of people in the pot,but because of the large chance of others holding your outs in their hand.

Does anyone know if anyone has done any simulations or strategies based on this sort of thing, and if so, any references?

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] thanks

[Strumey]

I think this is way to hard to apply in poker. There are such a variety of hands people will play with, as well as a wide variety people will fold. You just cant guess what people will do.

[Shroomy]

I agree strummy that you couldnt come anywhere near close to guessing an exact hand.

But Im willing to bet that in a typical game that if you are in a 10 person game where 6 people folded, the odds of hitting certain hands is reduced.

If you look at what people typically play, the more people who fold, the more likely that there was a higher ratio of high cards to low cards.

So .... if 7 people folded preflop, the button limps, you call in the sb with 55 and the flop comes 4,6,7

I'll bet your odds are significantly reduced of improving compared to if you played the same hand 3 handed. (but I could be wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[Strumey]

you may be right, but I see a lot of hands folded like K7, Q3, J5, A6, etc.

Whereas, I would be more likely to call with 78S, TJ, 55, AK, etc.

I am sure you can make some minor adjustment, but the most common hands I fold are high card/low card.

[MathEconomist]

This has been discussed in a lot of places (probably on this board as well, though I'm not sure.) At any rate, the real problem, as has been pointed out, is that there are a lot of high-low hands that get folded, and some low-low hands that get played. I'm sure there IS some effect, but trying to use that to make better decisions is tricky. My guess is that incorporating this information as best you can doesn't change very many decisions.

However, if you're really curious about this, you could probably run some computer simulations using different parameters for preflop play of the other players. It wouldn't even surprise me if someone has already done it.

[toms2866]

Such an adjustment would be splitting hairs. Is your strategy going to change if your equity is 34.3% vs. 34.4%?

[Shroomy]

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However, if you're really curious about this, you could probably run some computer simulations using different parameters for preflop play of the other players. It wouldn't even surprise me if someone has already done it.

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Thats what I figured too, I just was hoping that someone else had done it already [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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Such an adjustment would be splitting hairs. Is your strategy going to change if your equity is 34.3% vs. 34.4%?

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Im not so sure there are not times it would make a significant difference.

Sure maybe not preflop, but on latter rounds when the difference of one out is the difference between calling and standing happens all the time.

[Dazarath]

I think this concept is called "bunching". There have been threads about it before. I think the general consensus is its effect is so negligible, it's not really going to affect your play much.

[AaronBrown]

To give you an idea of the size of the effect, in 500,000 real money hands dealt at PokerRoom.com, an Ace appeared on the river 25,209 times and a 2 showed up 25,965 times. The reason is that hands that go to the river are more likely to have Aces among the hole cards than 2's.

On one hand, the chance of this happening by random chances is less than 1 in 2.2 million. So to a statistician, the effect is clearly real. On the other hand, it's hard to imagine a real hand for which this would make much difference for a decision.

In bricks-and-mortar play, there's much more to be learned from shuffle tracking than this kind of analysis.

[Strumey]

Is there a site that has the information for every card that hit on the river? I would love to see a breakdown