Stars 20/180, QQ UTG - play a hand with me

[LCposter]

I don't have the hand history, so I'm going from memory. 40 players left, blinds 100/200, and average stack size is 6750. Moved to the table 1.5 orbits ago and have gotten hit with the deck (AA, AK, and QQ). I've raised or pushed each, doubled up with AA and took blinds without showdown the other two times. Can't remember villian playing any hands yet - seems tight and solid.

Stack sizes:
UTG (Hero): 7500
UTG+1: ???
MP1: 7200
MP2: ???
Hijack: ???
Cutoff: ???
Button: ???
SB: ???
BB: ???

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises (500), 1 fold, MP1 calls, 6 folds.

Flop: (T1300) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets (600), MP1 calls.

Turn: (T2500) 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets (800), UTG raises (2000), MP1 re-raises all-in (5300), UTG ???

Here were my thoughts. Comments on all streets appreciated.

Pre-flop:
1) I'd expect a re-raise with AA/KK, so I'm thinking 88-JJ and AK/AQ/KQ are most likely, with Axs, suited connectors, and mid-small pairs less likely. What would you put in villian's range?

Flop:
2) We got a pretty safe flop (no A/K, and unlikely set or two pair). I think we're almost certainly ahead, but there is a possible gutshot and flush draw on board. I made a weak bet hoping to look like a missed overcard c-bet. How would you play? Lead out, check/call, or check/raise?

Turn:
3) Safe-looking turn card. My goal here was to get the money in the middle. I checked (continuing the AK charade), looking to check-raise. What's the best line here? If you check-raise, what's the plan when villian 3-bets?

[silencee]

I like the turn check raise. Since you made a relatively small bet on the flop, by checking on the turn it looks like you were continuation betting rather than betting with a made hand, so check-raising the turn will get you more chips in the long run than betting straight out.

When villain three bets, you have to call him here. The pot is giving you great odds for a call (almost 2.5 to 1, I think), and you are definitely ahead enough of the time here. I'd call and expect to see J10-A10, the nut flush/gutshot draw, and middle pairs up to JJ the majority of the time. It sucks the times that he flips a set or AA/KK, but the way you played it seems right to me.

edit: On second thought, raise more preflop... maybe 3.5x the BB. That's the only major mistake I see.

[TFGoose]

Wow... I hate this. My gut says with 3-1 on your money you shove it all-in here. But villain certainly doesn't seem to mind that prospect. Even if you discount his call on the flop, a lead on the turn followed by an all-in check raise means he is certainly happy with his hand (or just thinks you are completely full of it).

I don't know. Against a solid opponent I think you at least have to entertain the possibility of laying this down. I mean, even if the 10 helped him a little, you'd think he would've thought twice about going with the hand after your check-raise. I don't think a tight player shoves all his money in here with just A-10. You've still got 4400 chips left, which is enough to manuever at least a little at the current blind level. At the end of the day, I say this one comes down to your read on the guy. Judging from the facts of the situation thus far though, I think you're beat.

--TFGoose

[LCposter]

Thanks for the comments. I used to only check-raise monsters and big draws on the flop. Check-raising good made (but somewhat vulnerable) hands on the turn is a newer idea for me.

As for pre-flop, my default PFR used to be 3-4x BB, but I've found that once the blinds get up to 100/200, 2.5x BBs take the blinds down often enough (especially from early position, because people respect the EP raise and worry about a slowplayed AA/KK). Specifically, at this table my standard raise so far has been 500 and it's been folded around twice. Also, being OOP, I am trying to keep the pot a little smaller if we see a flop. But I can't disagree. Maybe 3-3.5x BB would have been better.

[Masquerade]

Pre-flop you must add small pairs to villains range. It might not be correct play (given the chance of a later raise) but people love to play 55 or 22 there.

On the flop I think you made a big error only betting 600 into a 1300 pot. It's a good flop for QQ but with a gutshot 4 and a flush draw you're giving Ax overcards the correct price to stick around. I'd bet around the pot here for sure.

On the turn I think you made a second big error in checking. What are scare cards for you? Any club, ace, king or four! That's 20 scare cards! If he checks behind you and one of them falls then you've got a big problem.

OK he didnt check but made a move at the pot. Now the point of your check-raise was to get all the money in but WHY??? You have a pair. You think the villain can't put an UTG raiser on a big pair? I hate the spot you're in now ... the pot odds are veering you towards a call (because of that check-raise) but you can't believe your hand is good very often. OK you can beat JJ and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] X but that's about it.

[silencee]

You guys are giving the opponent way too much credit here. Way, way too much credit. To say his range only includes JJ and AcX is way too tight for somebody at this level. Preflop raising position isn't a factor for most players down here. Also, how is a middle pocket pair out of the question here? OP's play could easily be seen as a weak steal at the pot, or a flush draw, overcards, et cetera. The goal should be to get all the money in here.

If villain checks behind and a scare card comes on the river, so be it. Villain's range includes many hands that would be scared by the same river, so a simple value bet would be successful a decent percentage of the time there. If he's reraised, he can re-assess and get away from it without taking too large a hit.

Also, in a somewhat unrelated note, I hate check raising monsters. I much prefer to bet out, like you did, when you have a big hand on a flop.

[LCposter]

Thanks to everyone for the replies. Posting results now (I think people who respond deserve to see them).

Villian flipped over TT and left me drawing for 2 outs on the river. I haven't seen this concept in the literature, but this hand seemed to present a good opportunity to "check for information". By checking the turn and representing a missed draw or overs, villian is likely to check behind with a draw or overs and bet with any pair to protect his hand. On the other hand, if I lead the turn big, villian can get away cheaply and I miss a lot of value from worse pairs. If I lead the turn small, villian can call with anything and I'm building a pot OOP without knowing where I stand.

I used to think you had to bet or raise to find out where you stand, but I'm starting to think that on later streets OOP, checking can give you as much or more information while keeping the pot size under control (and still giving you plenty of play - you can check/raise when villian bets, you can bet river when villians checks behind and get called by worse hands picking off your "bluff").

If a K/A came on the turn, then I think a bet is better to find out where you are at (checking tends to induce a bluff). But when you have TPTK or an overpair to the board, you were the aggressor pre-flop/flop, you're OOP, and the number of scare cards are limited, perhaps the default play should be to check the turn looking to check/raise or bet a safe river?

I'd love to hear comments and/or other situations where you "give up the lead" even though the board is not scary and you almost certainly have the best hand.

[greg44]

I agree w/ silencer. Try to get all your chips in w/ the overpair because players at 20/180s are not good. You could be up against any ten here. I don't know how often you are up against medium pairs tho since most medium pairs would want to raise that flop to prevent overcards from drawing out on them....