Monster draw: bait him or poosh him?

tkkjsoup · #1 06-13-2006, 09:04 AM

Villain is 44/11/2 after 100 hands. Haven't seen him do anything out of the ordinary except limp a little too often.

It would be easy to push this flop but it seems like we are giving up significant value if he folds right away. On the other hand, the way it played out I'm afraid I left some significant value on the table.

Is there a better line on this hand? If you vote to push the flop, please explain why this is better. Don't we want villain to call on the flop?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($47.10)
Hero ($113.05)
UTG ($101.85)
Button ($175.01)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Button raises to $3.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($7.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7.15, Hero raises to $35, Button calls $27.85.

Turn: ($77.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $35, Hero calls $35.

River: ($147.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero calls $39.55 (All-In), Button folds.

Final Pot: $187.05

djoyce003 · #2 06-13-2006, 09:51 AM

a better line is to bet/3bet all-in. Hopefully he'll raise your flop bet, then the threebet will be less of an overbet.

Tilt · #3 06-13-2006, 09:58 AM

I think this line is fine. You can't push the flop, thats a huge overbet that he'll only call if you are behind. On the turn you know he's not folding, so peeling is fine here. I'm very surprised by his river fold, but the fact that he folds there is not a reason to push the turn. He'll call that river most times.

xwillience · #4 06-13-2006, 10:05 AM

flop = b3b all in.

if he had bet anymore on the turn you wouldnt be getting odds to draw.

Pokey · #5 06-13-2006, 10:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]

If you vote to push the flop, please explain why this is better. Don't we want villain to call on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's call it 15 clean outs to a winner.

Your pot equity: 54%.
If villain folds the flop after betting: you win $14.65.
If villain calls all-in on the flop: you win an average of 0.54*(226.60) - 109.55 = $12.81.

Even as played, you get more equity out of him folding than him calling.

If you had led the flop and gotten a raise, a three-bet all-in REALLY wants a fold, since the amount of dead money in the pot grows ever larger.

The worst possible situation is the one you got: you're mostly pot-committed and your hand is obvious to your opponent. Now, he can value-bet you into oblivion when you miss (see the turn for an example) and check behind of fold if you connect. OK, so 6 of your 15 outs are sneaky and probably win you more money, but when you hit your flush, it's over.

The most +EV situation possible for us here is we bet, he raises, we three-bet all-in, and he folds it.
The next best situation from an EV perspective is we bet, he raises, we three-bet all-in, and he calls it.
A bad situation is when we get enough of our stack into the middle to pot-commit us without pot-committing our opponent.
The worst situation is we get a significant fraction of our stack into the middle but not enough to pot-commit us. Now, we can still be pushed off the (huge) pot with a significant turn bet, but we can't be guaranteed our just rewards if we DO hit our hand.

Try to get it all in on the flop, and hope that he folds. Check-raising all-in is OK here, given that button raised preflop, but better is if you make a bet that you know he'll raise.

tkkjsoup · #6 06-13-2006, 10:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If villain calls all-in on the flop: you win an average of 0.54*( 226.60 ) - 109.55 = $12.81.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgot to add the $7.50 from preflop, no?

Doesn't really change the import, except that it is better for villain to call our 3bai instead of fold our 3bai. Thanks for the help, Pokey and others.

Tilt · #7 06-13-2006, 10:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The worst possible situation is the one you got: you're mostly pot-committed and your hand is obvious to your opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, its not. A double gutter straight flush draw in a raised pot is anything but obvious here.

Everyone assumes that against our villain's hand we have the lions share of the equity. He could also have a set, in which case all of you who are so eager to get it all in on the flop are throwing away money. He could also have a better draw.

Simply looking at the flop and saying "hey look I have a straight and a flush draw" and then pushing regardless of the pot, stack, or game dynamics is monkey poker. That line IS obvious, and there are hands that you do not want to see calling you.

And FWIW, I like the check raise here in many cases. Against a generic C-bet that line takes down a lot of pots.

tkkjsoup · #8 06-13-2006, 11:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone assumes that against our villain's hand we have the lions share of the equity. He could also have a set, in which case all of you who are so eager to get it all in on the flop are throwing away money. He could also have a better draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

After villain folded he berated me for "calling $70 on a draw" and claimed to have folded a set.

What is the flop equity here against a set? Haven't figured out how to use pokerstove yet.

djoyce003 · #9 06-13-2006, 11:13 AM

you are a decent underdog to a set because of his FH redraws.

RussianBear · #10 06-13-2006, 11:22 AM

Damn Pokey, it's like you can read my mind or something. That's exactly what I was going to post, minust the math. I suck at math.