Late night turn decisions

Jeff28 · #1 06-13-2006, 10:07 AM

I was playing my local live 2-5 PLO game last night, grinding out a small win, when I decided it was time to go home in about 2 hands when the big blind came around. (You know, like I had decided for about the last three orbits).

Of course, I run into one of those classic 2 am "everyone is stuck" and lets gamboool hands. The game has definitely picked up some speed at this point.

I'm sitting UTG +1 with about $850 at the start of this hand and am dealt J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG limps for $5, I limp, man to my left limps, and a stuck but obvious-playing young woman raises the pot to $35. Five callers back to me and I call and so does the man to my left. Pot is roughly $250. Seven to the flop.

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Everyone checks around. Was this a good check or should I have defined where I was in the hand?

Turn is the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

SB bets out $105 and is all-in. He's stuck about $600 on the night, so I'm not sure if this is a dry king, or a crappy flush. It's one or the other. I lean towards crappy flush, maybe 75/25 over dry king or bottom set, etc. I'm still concerned that the woman behind me has aces, but she didn't fire at the monotone flop (and has about 300 behind).

2 folds to me, man to my left is already mucking as is another guy at the other end of the table. Woman isn't indicating anything.

What's my best turn action?

--Jeff

JB_Dawg · #2 06-13-2006, 10:34 AM

Sounds like your gut is telling you she does not have aces, so you have 10 live outs which you only need 75% of the time getting better than 3:1 on your money. I call and if she calls i am probably giving up

RickyG · #3 06-13-2006, 02:07 PM

I doubt that he would have put in his last $100 in the pot with nothing but a bluff as th pot is multiway and he has to know he is unlikely to win it. Unless this is a really bad unthinking player I would lean towards at least some sort of made hand or draw. You beat any made hand he has other than a crappy flush. As for the woman behind you she has position, and even the most straightforward players will raise more than just AA in position.

The other factor is that if she is a straightforward player she isnt likely to call to fill up if she only has a hand. Since you figure that she is the only other person likely to contest this pot, and her most likely hand is AA, I would lean more towards raising here than smoothcalling. You should raise enough that if she has AA she is not getting proper odds to draw out on your (represented) flush. By smoothcalling you are hoping she folds getting 4-1 against an all in player, which isnt very likely.

Tilt · #4 06-13-2006, 04:53 PM

I disagree with Ricky's proposed action. While a shutout raise might get you a little EV for your draw against the flush, it will often get you into a whole lot more trouble here. If you pot it you will sometimes get multiway drawing to one out if the aces call. The number of times that that will happen outweighs the benefits of the times they fold behind you.

So I think its a fold against aggressive/tricky players, a call against loose/passive players. If you call and she calls and you fill up, throw out a blocking bet on the river and you will know whether she has aces.

RickyG · #5 06-14-2006, 01:34 AM

I think calling is the worst option.

cmyr · #6 06-14-2006, 08:25 PM

what's important is whether this villian is going to fold to a pot-sized reraise here, or if she might feel like chasing. If she's a nit, then an isolation raise isn't bad. if she's likely to wake up here even occasionally, then looking for a one-outer in a big side-pot isn't attractive.