#1
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Speaking of Resteals
Can someone walk me through how I can figure out if this is a good play? [mathmatically]
This around 20 minutes into the final table. Lets say the range that he calls with is AQ/AK and JJ+ I'll say he opens with 30% of his hands. The only hand I've shown was AK and have been playing pretty tight. As you can see, there are lots of short stacks still hanging on... PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) SB (t23172) Hero (t38456) UTG (t17976) UTG+1 (t19020) MP1 (t16730) MP2 (t12383) CO (t116035) Button (t26228) Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4075</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t38456</font>, Button folds. Final Pot: t42981 |
#2
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Re: Speaking of Resteals
I'll use the range you gave for him to show how to do the math. AQ+, JJ+ is 4.2% of all hands so if he only calls with those and he is raising 30% of hands, he should fold to your push 86% of time and call 14%.
86% of the time he folds and you gain t7075. 14% of the time he calls and you are 25% against his calling range so you gain t29228 25% of the time and lose t26228 75% of the time. (.25*29228)-(.75*26228) = -12364 when he calls Now combine the times he folds and times he calls and(.86*7074)-(.14*12364) = 4353.54 making this +EV. I should mention that the calling range you give him seems crazy tight and the more hands he calls with here, the less +EV this move is. You should try checkin out the EV with a looser calling range. |
#3
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Re: Speaking of Resteals
[ QUOTE ]
I'll use the range you gave for him to show how to do the math. AQ+, JJ+ is 4.2% of all hands so if he only calls with those and he is raising 30% of hands, he should fold to your push 86% of time and call 14%. [/ QUOTE ] Could you explain how you came up with the 86% and 14% numbers? Its probably something simple I'm missing, but I just can't figure it out. |
#4
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Re: Speaking of Resteals
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'll use the range you gave for him to show how to do the math. AQ+, JJ+ is 4.2% of all hands so if he only calls with those and he is raising 30% of hands, he should fold to your push 86% of time and call 14%. [/ QUOTE ] Could you explain how you came up with the 86% and 14% numbers? Its probably something simple I'm missing, but I just can't figure it out. [/ QUOTE ] He is raising with 30% of all hands. He is calling a reraise with 4.2% of all hands. 4.2 is 14% of 30. So he will raise with 30% of all hands, and call a reraise with 14% of that 30%. |
#5
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Re: Speaking of Resteals
It's important to note that the more you reraise, the more he calls and therefore your reraise can become -EV.
Just wanted to keep that clear as the numbers are crunched. Brad |
#6
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Re: Speaking of Resteals
[ QUOTE ]
It's important to note that the more you reraise, the more he calls and therefore your reraise can become -EV. [/ QUOTE ] True, but you also have to keep in mind that smaller raises = bigger chance of being called = -EV [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Just to make this crystal clear, you knew this already of course. |
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