I'm an idiot, but maybe you'll learn a lesson

Scruff · #1 01-13-2006, 08:13 AM

I know this is dumb, but I don't care, I'll share.

I thought I had finally found a profitable middle:

Denver -3 -105
NE +3 -105

I was thinking, great I'm getting 19:1 on a 9:1 play!

So I put in large bets (for me $122 each - which was my whole roll on one of the sites) on both sides, then - as I begin to write the post to notify you all that this great opportunity is out there . . . I realize that there is no way for me to win. LOL (because what else can you do?)

Jeez . . . Oh well, I'm only out $5.82 unless I push both bets, lesson learned. I got so excited, that I missed the obvious, even after doing the math and thinking I was careful.

I guess the lesson, besides being not a donkey, is that when something looks too good to be true, don't rush into it just because you think you'll lose it if you don't act quick - like they'd really move the line at 7 a.m. EST on a Friday anyway. I'm really not an idiot, despite the title of the post.

Now most of my negligible sports-betting bankroll (most of my gambling funds are in poker) is tied up for the weekend, and I'm only hoping for a push. Bummer.

Feel free to share your own dumb stories from your beginning years if you like, so I feel like less of a moron!

LargeCents · #2 01-13-2006, 08:54 AM

Don't feel bad, I've done some similar bone-headed plays.

Once I thought I found an arb on a Sac/Bos NBA game playing Sac -1 -105, then Bos +110 on the ML. Somehow I thought I was playing the ML on both bets. Anyway, if Sac won by exactly 1 point, I'd have lost like 100 bucks. I was sweating it as Sac ended up winning by 4. Moral: double check your bets!

Another time I found a 1 cent arb involving a betting exchange. But forgot that they charge a 2 percent commission. Stupid. Besides, a 1 cent arb isn't worth it anyway.

These are just the obvious mistakes. I'm sure there's tons of more subtle mistakes that I'm making without even realizing it.

Mr_J · #3 01-13-2006, 08:54 AM

I wish I learnt my lessons so cheaply.

wageringblog · #4 01-13-2006, 08:04 PM

I usually place my football bets on Thursdays or Fridays for the lines I like. For the ones I don't, I continually monitor them throughout the weekend to see if they move to where I want them to in order to meet my threshhold to place the bet.

Well, twice this year, on Sunday morning I checked a line for a game and got excited that the line had finally moved to where I wanted and I placed the bet... Only to find out when I went to document it in my spreadsheet that I had already placed that bet. The line had never moved after all; I had just forgotten that I had already wagered on that game.

Not a huge error, but for someone as anal about money management as I am, having twice as many units on a game irks me. So to correct it each time, I calculated what I needed to place on the opposite side to even me out on the game in terms of exposure and placed a bet on the other team. It cost me some juice, but at least got my exposure back to where I wanted it to be.

Scruff · #5 01-14-2006, 08:16 PM

I know the stakes are small, but at least I found a free roll to try to make back $5.65 of my $5.82 that I lost on my stupidity.

VIP NE +140
SI Den -135

So I dropped 152.96 on NE to win 214.14 and I dropped 214.12 on Den to win 158.61 . . . so I'll get $5.65 if Denver wins and 2 cents if NE does.

I know the numbers are small, but at least I might get my money back! I hate NE, so I figured why win like $2.50 guaranteed, when I can double up rooting for Denver!

DougOzzzz · #6 01-14-2006, 08:18 PM

Denver -135 to win the game is one of the most blatant spread to moneyline conversion errors of all time.

Edit: 8 cent scalp available with PINs +143 on NE.

smartalecc5 · #7 01-14-2006, 08:45 PM

Why not just bet like 3 million when you scal to win like a hundred dollars. Everyone has that capital right?

NoSoup4U · #8 01-14-2006, 10:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just bet like 3 million when you scal to win like a hundred dollars. Everyone has that capital right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I put 10K down for $146 in profit. So it took a hair less than 3 million. That's 1.42% same day interest on my money. I'd take that every day.

DougOzzzz · #9 01-14-2006, 10:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not just bet like 3 million when you scal to win like a hundred dollars. Everyone has that capital right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I put 10K down for $146 in profit. So it took a hair less than 3 million. That's 1.42% same day interest on my money. I'd take that every day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where'd you bet Denver? SIA won't take more than 1.1K

DougOzzzz · #10 01-15-2006, 12:58 AM

My turn for the "idiot" story.

I went ahead and bet this 8 cent scalp, using it as a free bet for $40 on Denver. At least, that's what I thought. The $40 would have been nice to soften the blow (slightly) of the Pats loss. Turns out I screwed up and my free bet was on the PATS. Insult to injury, as they say.

At least it was an easy way to transfer $ out of my Pinnacle account.