How do I analyze this?

[Atropos]

Hey folks,
I am a NL cashgame player, who sometimes plays MTTs for fun, with varying success. When the blinds get high, I have no real idea what to do and just play by feel. I would love to learn how to analyze these situations, so I can get better.

Example:

Party 40k guaranteed Tourney, 109$ Buyin
Players left: 21 of 576 Players left
Average Stack: 82.285 Chips
Blind Level: 2000/4000 Blinds, 100 Antes

Hand:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t77786)
BB (t59060)
UTG (t88784)
MP1 (t122137)
Hero (t37855)
CO (t58208)
Button (t115982)

--> Blinds + Antes = 6700 Chips to steal
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero goes allin for [t37755]

Was this correct? I am not really interested in the answer itself, but the thought process behind it. Here is how I try to think hands like this through:

I. How is the absolute strength of my hand? --&gt; A7s ranks in place 24 of the Sklansky-Karlson Hand ranking.

II. How is the relative strength of my hand? --&gt; I must consider
a) Position
b) Assign calling ranges for my opponents
c) See how A7s plays against the calling ranges
--&gt; With these variables I can compute if a Push/Fold is +chipEV here.

III. Analyze if the push is +$EV as well --&gt; This is tough for me

Things I want to consider:
a) If I bust out in 21th place, I get 374$, while 20th - 11th place get 490$. There are 2 or 3 stacks who are shorter than me. The real nice money of course starts at the final table, heavily in the Top 3 spots.
b) I only have 2 hands until the Big Blind hits me again.

I would appreciate it very much if some of the MTT geniuses here showed me how to calculate that stuff. Especially how I should weight the possible win of an allin when called, or a succesful blind steal in relation to my chances to final table this tournament.

[FeNeF]

SNGPT is designed for single table tournaments, but it's really useful for hands like this too. Just make sure it's set to cEV instead of $EV and it will work fine.

[FGators]

Accoring to harrington you have a dwindling M at about 5.65 here. I think the correct play, with the blinds about to hit you is to push. Picking up the 6700 chips is huge, and you might get lucky and get into a race with KQ, or a pair of 2s through 6s, which people in late position have a hard time folding.

Obviously it would be nicer if you have a card higher than a 7, to increase the odds of a coinflip from someone calling with a pocketpair, but you are getting so short that I think you have to make your stand here to get chips for a final table run.

[NHFunkii]

at this point in the tournament, cEV is pretty darn close to $EV, so I wouldn't worry about that. You said you know how to calculate cEV, so I would just stick with that.

[FeNeF]

Yeah FWIW, I think this hand is a push.

[Atropos]

[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT is designed for single table tournaments, but it's really useful for hands like this too. Just make sure it's set to cEV instead of $EV and it will work fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already put this situation into SNGPT and the +chip EV is of course huge. On the other hand, I have a small bubble situation, since 20th place pays more than 21th place, but maybe the difference is not big enough. However i ask myself if maybe some small -chip EV gambles are correct at this stage of the tourney as well, since 20th - 11th there is no difference in payouts, and increasing the chance to win the tourney must be worth alot?