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#11
06-11-2006, 03:36 AM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
[ QUOTE ]
But if either of the two team don't qualify you will lose both bets, thus two units. [/ QUOTE ] Yah this is true sorry. So it's now 38% by my calculation which is much more realistic... 
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#12
06-11-2006, 07:21 AM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
this seems absolutely terrible.
fwiw ive got a fair bit of money on serbia winning the group
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#14
06-11-2006, 11:34 AM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
have u guys not seen the quality of the games?
SM and IC are both are decent teams, surely they both did lose but they played a very challenging game u can never knw how the games going to turn out for N v IC and A v SM. i reckon depending on who wins IC vs SM, one of them will qualify
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#15
06-11-2006, 11:44 AM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
Could you please explain your last sentence sunnypoker? Let's say one of the teams wins, they still have to win another game, against who? I do agree both of them have quality and they are hard to fight, it is the group of death, but at the end of the day i still see, and hope, Holland and Argentina advancing.
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#16
06-11-2006, 12:05 PM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
[ QUOTE ]
Could you please explain your last sentence sunnypoker? Let's say one of the teams wins, they still have to win another game, against who? I do agree both of them have quality and they are hard to fight, it is the group of death, but at the end of the day i still see, and hope, Holland and Argentina advancing. [/ QUOTE ] Well one of them could still sneak in on a goal-differential situation, say CI beats S/M by a lot of goals, Netherlands loses to Argentina and ties CI, then CI would advance.
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#17
06-11-2006, 05:14 PM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If S/M or CI qualifies >12% of the time you lose. Still like it? -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] How do you figure? [/ QUOTE ] If first exacta wins you net 0.24 units. If second exacta wins you net 0.25 units. Otherwise you net -2 units. Therefore if you net 0.245 units 89% of the time and net -2 units 11% of the time you net 0 overall. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think this is true?? [/ QUOTE ] lol I have dyslexia. -SmileyEH
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#18
06-11-2006, 08:30 PM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
[ QUOTE ]
So basically if both Netherlands and Argentina advance I get 2.24x my money [/ QUOTE ] Let me get this straight. You make 2 exacta bets, one at +224, one at +225. If Argentina and Netherlands advance, you will win one of those, winning 2.24 units, and lose the other, losing 1 unit. For a net of 1.24 units. Am I missing something??
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#19
06-12-2006, 11:36 AM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Could you please explain your last sentence sunnypoker? Let's say one of the teams wins, they still have to win another game, against who? I do agree both of them have quality and they are hard to fight, it is the group of death, but at the end of the day i still see, and hope, Holland and Argentina advancing. [/ QUOTE ] Well one of them could still sneak in on a goal-differential situation, say CI beats S/M by a lot of goals, Netherlands loses to Argentina and ties CI, then CI would advance. [/ QUOTE ] I have bet on the group winners for every world cup and Eurpean Chapionships for thirty years*. In that time I have learnt that it is great fun to have a small bet on each group winner to have an interest in every game but it is fiendishly difficult to predict this even if you think you are going well after round 1. Ok so Holland and Argentina have won their opener. Next they play the weaker teams of Ivory Coast and Serbia & Montenegro. If both win again - sorted you have no probs but if either messes up and draws/loses what happens? Fortunately here Round 3 pits your two teams against each other but if one of them has messed up round 2 they face a terrible game, under pressure against a strong side that is under no pressure whatsover, they may face a lot of very enthuiastic second stringers - or they might find that top dog is happy with a draw (no good for you) either way this is a very unpredictable match. Meanwhile the other match has one team who are out already and another fighting for qualification....another unpredicatble mis match in terms of what the teams (and players) are playing for and a mismatch in terms of team orale. If one of your two teams messes up round two your bet is suddenly dependent upon the weakest team in the group...the one who is going home already doing well against the team that has just got a result in round 2........any result winor draw leaves one of your teams vulnerable if the whipping boy gets whipped. * This year I have a Goliath!
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#20
06-12-2006, 03:38 PM
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Re: Group C Advancing Teams - World Cup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If S/M or CI qualifies >12% of the time you lose. Still like it? -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] How do you figure? [/ QUOTE ] If first exacta wins you net 0.24 units. If second exacta wins you net 0.25 units. Otherwise you net -2 units. Therefore if you net 0.245 units 89% of the time and net -2 units 11% of the time you net 0 overall. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think this is true?? [/ QUOTE ] lol I have dyslexia. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] No worries I duffed the calc too haha
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