LO8 Take the free turn?

DougShrapnel · #1 06-11-2006, 12:57 AM

Mp is an hopeless slowplayer, the raise means he doesn't have the nuts.
BB isn't very good and calls down too much, and bets with little.

Comments on all streets welcome.

PokerStars 5/10 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB caps, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

River: (14.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

alwaysburied · #2 06-11-2006, 02:24 AM

Against 3 players, in position, I'm gonna take the free card here. You've got to think against 3 other players there's either a nut low draw or an A-4 as well. With what you said about the BB, he could easily have the high straight draw. I'm gonna knuckle this one, for the reason that there's no way I can win this pot on the river with a bet if I miss.
-md
www.myspace.com/iambabyd

Fiasco · #3 06-11-2006, 06:16 AM

Nope.

[ QUOTE ]
You've got to think against 3 other players there's either a nut low draw or an A-4 as well

[/ QUOTE ]

You dont have to think this at all after a mostly high flop that got capped. Sure you could be up against A3JQ or A378, but theres no reason to assume that. Id want to know villains' various VPIPs before I judged how likely it is that someone has a low as good or better than yours.

Youre against three players, all of whom are committed to the pot, and you have WAY more than 25% equity against any reasonable range of hands. Gotta bet here.

I ran some hands, and you could easily have as much as 46% equity. Even if youre up against an A3 you still probably have 32%. Only if youre up against BOTH a nut low draw and a higher club draw will you have less than 25% here.

So checking here is basically a disaster unless it will make all of your opponents go insane on the river.

DougShrapnel · #4 06-11-2006, 07:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Id want to know villains' various VPIPs

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't use a HUD never was any good at it.
MP1 58 VPIP WTSD 38 W$SD 71 81 hands
BB 33 VPIP WTSD 52 w$sd 63 217 hands
UTG 19 VPIP WTSD 55 w$sd 46 224 hands

BB showed Kh Qd 7s Jd
UTG mucked As 2s Qh Js
I don't know what MP had could be as good as a set and as bad as QJxx.

MP was tighter then the numbers tell.

Obv the plan was to check behind the turn UI, but I figured that the 2c and 3c were the only cards in the deck that improved my hand enough to bet it for equity without actually giving me anything. But from the numbers you gave it appears that any non pair club get me enough of this pot to bet. Interesting.

Fiasco · #5 06-11-2006, 08:16 AM

I was just fooling around, sticking various likely hands into twodimes. Didnt use pokerstove or anything fancy, so I have no idea how likely it is that you will be good if you hit clubs. Id certainly bet a (backdoor 8 high) club flush if I made one and it was checked to me on the river.

Looks like UTG has the same problem as me, doesnt play enough hands and then goes to showdown with too many of them.

Fiasco · #6 06-11-2006, 08:20 AM

By the way, Im not sure I like or understand the threebet on the flop.

flexus · #7 06-11-2006, 12:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, Im not sure I like or understand the threebet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this not a great spot to promote the low side of hero's hand with a 3bet? For two bets, I imagine a nut-backdoor-low draw with a little some thing for high might call, but for three bets a lot of these hand might be folding. Also, Hero should have sufficifent pot equity to 3-bet the flop most of the time. If it is a mistake (ie betting for value is not possible) then I think it is a small mistake, easily offset by hero's increased chances for the low side of the pot.

I'm having major problems with promotion raising, and I think I might be over-using them, so don't hold me to this. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

DougShrapnel · #8 06-11-2006, 02:17 PM

The plan with the flop 3-bet was to try and get my self position on the prospective better. So as to increase the chances that on the turn either I'm closing the action, or taking a free card. Combined with the promoting aspect of my low and bdf, and the equity I had in the pot i can't see smooth calling being right. And lastly the two players that had shown an interested in the pot I felt I could manipulate well and I'd be happy to lose UTG.

Fiasco · #9 06-11-2006, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is this not a great spot to promote the low side of hero's hand with a 3bet?

[/ QUOTE ] Nope. The only player who hasnt yet called or raised on the flop is the SB, chances are good that SB doesnt have a better low, and wouldnt play for two bets if he did. As for someone with nut backdoor low and high draw, most people with enough to call two bets will also call 3 bets. Note that UTG called a cap on the flop with just this sort of holding. UTG is the most likely to have a better low, but after hes called one bet on the flop its somewhat unlikely he'll fold to two more. Actually I dont know, UTG should have probably folded to the cap, and that would have promoted Hero's low. It all seems like a pretty high price to pay to possibly promote a backdoor low draw that may already be best. In addition, the two players who have shown interest in this hand on the flop could have better lows too, and they arent going anywhere.