Live 20/40 AKs in the CO...river play?

[Garland]

Location: Bay 101 in San Jose, CA
Stakes: $20/$40 They just raised the rake to $5 per hand...sucks!
Players: 9-handed. Semi-Loose, semi-aggressive. Not the greatest game, but not the worst game either. I'd say there is an average of one chop every orbit.

Principal Players:

BB - Fairly solid older player, and aggressive...more aggressive than the rest of the players. He will raise the flop and bet the turn with bottom pair and flush draw (but will not bluff the river when he missed). He will call a check-raise with QT on a AQx and raise the turn when a T appears, but fails to value bet the river.
LMP - Loose passive.
CO - I'm in CO with a fairly tight-aggressive image. I had just raised the hand before in an isolation attempt with A8o against a weak MP player. That attempt failed when I was called by SB (AJo for winner) and BB. So I might appear looser at this very moment.

Preflop: There are 4 limpers including LMP and I raise in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB folds and BB calls. 6 players to the flop...

Flop (12.5 small bets - 6 players): A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets, folds to LMP who calls, I raise, BB 3-bets, LMP cold-calls 3, I 4-bet cap and all call.

Turn (12.25 big bets - 3 players): 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB bets (with an air of determination), LMP calls, I call.

River (15.25 big bets - 3 players): 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB bets, LMP sighs and folds, I ????

All comments and thoughts appreciated.

Garland

[SackUp]

ugg. would he 3 bang you with AK or AQ from the bb preflop? If not then I think calling is much easier though given your read it looks like he must have KQ, AJ, A10, J10 or a set.

This is a jumbo pot though so you would have to be fairly certain with your read to let this go.

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
Stakes: $20/$40 They just raised the rake to $5 per hand...sucks!

[/ QUOTE ]
Damn, are you serious? I guess I'm sort of glad I won't be home for the summer.

In my limited experience a lot of the people at Bay 101 won't 3-bet AK/AQ preflop, especially in this situation with so many limpers. But I don't think your average Bay 101'er would ever play this way with a hand that we beat. Because his read is that the villain is more aggressive than the rest of the players, I don't really want to fold here. Maybe I'm just a fish, though.

[TheBronzer]

Raise the turn. If he 3-bets again you can fold that river unimproved. Your draw is so huge that I am just not a fan of the call on the turn.

[TheStandman]

I like the 4-bet cap on the flop, that's a smart thing to do. The BB knows you capped the flop and he should know you have at least an ace or the flush draw. He wants the flush draw out but he might put you on 2 lower clubs and not AKs.

He is not afraid of an ace but he is afraid of the flush that's why he keeps betting so he probably has QK or AJ and has you beat.

The way you played it you should call the river, because you might have the best hand and you need to be 93.80% (15125/16125) sure that he has you beat. If you can read people you can be 93.80% sure and fold the hand.

He is not afraid of any ace better kicker and he kept betting and raising all the time.

The tricky part here is that you didn't 3-bet on the turn so logically he didn't put you on AK and might have put you on AQ or worse. So he might think that his AK is good enough because you didn't raise and he puts you on a flush draw.

Taking this into consideration you should call the bet. But I would prefer a turn 3-bet to keep him fair. If he calls (and does not raise) you can be fairly sure he does not have QK (because he wants the flush gone so he would cap it with QK) and call the river bet. If he raises you could call and fold the river unimproved.

But you would have to be very sure 94.81% (1825/1925) that he is not capable of bluffing on the river or betting this with AK or even 89 of clubs.

Usually I am not that sure about the actions of a player and will sometimes call his bet because I would be sick if he collected over 700 dollar with a worse hand and it's your own fault that he felt he had the best hand.

[brandon]

This is the perfect time for a free showdown play. Raise the turn and check behind on the river unimproved. If you get 3 bet on the turn, you can fold the river.

[Alyssa]

Raise the turn and bet river for value.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the turn and bet river for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the river is a value bet at all, when we are hoping the BB is pumping AQ. A solid, very aggressive player like this will likely have hero beat with that board if hero doesn't improve.

Haupt_234

[Vlade Divac]

id call here getting 16 to 1 he could have ak also

[tpir]

Before lots of people start talking about getting 16:1 on the end I just wanted to point out we need to be good way more often than that if we are resigned to call down from the turn no matter what.

(Not trying to be weak-tight nitty... I pay this off like it's my [censored] job !) [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]