$16: Folding bottom two pair

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is you're always going to be able to think of hands that it is technically possible he could have. How can you possibly put him on a made straight here? If he flopped a straight; that's poker. You can't go through playing games thinking "well there is an 8% chance that he called with Q9 so I fold."

The only credible thing you can read him for is a set but for me it is much more likely that he has top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, since you're slow at learning:

T8o on a Jc Ts 8s board:

vs Q9s/Q9o 18% Equity
vs 88 11% Equity
vs TT/JJ 2% Equity
vs JT/J8 10% Equity
vs AJ 70% Equity
vs KQs(w/o spades)/KQ 65% Equity
vs KQ of spades 47% Equity
vs J9/T9/98 (suited/offsuit) 55% Equity
vs J9 with spades 35% Equity
vs flush draw 63% Equity
vs OESD 68% Equity


Just by these numbers we can see that the number of times we are ahead it's no more than 2 to 1 (and most of the time 55/45 or 60/40) and the number of times we are behind, we are far behind (from 50/50 against KQ of spades to a 48-1 dog, with the in between at 7-1 dog)

Also taken into account that this is a tournament, you don't need to take marginal edges. In fact, in a cash game, this is a pretty routine fold unless a donk is playing.

[Milton19]

So you're saying when you are ahead it's a routine fold?

You can't just give all these possibilities an equal weighting. You see this as a routine fold; that's fine. I'd be prepared to call in this situation.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're saying when you are ahead it's a routine fold?

You can't just give all these possibilities an equal weighting. You see this as a routine fold; that's fine. I'd be prepared to call in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, you can't give them all equal weighting. Let's say he has JJ 5% of the time since JJ most likely raises and TT 25% of the time. 88 is 99% of the time. What's him to limp with hands like Q9/JT/J8/spades with a 9/KQ of spades...

Seriously, stop thinking you're right because "OMG you have 2 pair, PUSH!!!", this is a losing poker player mentality. Think of the situations.

This is a fold in most situations.

[Milton19]

Well I didn't say push, I said it's likely you are ahead and so a call is reasonable.

I can see where you are coming from and I am prepared to admit that it is not such a definite call as I'd first thought.

I guess for all of us to make a definite decision about what we'd do, we would need to have watched how the opponent has played previous situations.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I didn't say push, I said it's likely you are ahead and so a call is reasonable.

I can see where you are coming from and I am prepared to admit that it is not such a definite call as I'd first thought.

I guess for all of us to make a definite decision about what we'd do, we would need to have watched how the opponent has played previous situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call is reasonable???

Are you aware how many turn cards kill your 2 pair?

There are roughly 14-15 cards on the turn that you don't want to see on the turn.

Frankly this is a re-raise or fold moment.

[chunk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The thing is you're always going to be able to think of hands that it is technically possible he could have. How can you possibly put him on a made straight here? If he flopped a straight; that's poker. You can't go through playing games thinking "well there is an 8% chance that he called with Q9 so I fold."

The only credible thing you can read him for is a set but for me it is much more likely that he has top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, since you're slow at learning:

T8o on a Jc Ts 8s board:

vs Q9s/Q9o 18% Equity
vs 88 11% Equity
vs TT/JJ 2% Equity
vs JT/J8 10% Equity
vs AJ 70% Equity
vs KQs(w/o spades)/KQ 65% Equity
vs KQ of spades 47% Equity
vs J9/T9/98 (suited/offsuit) 55% Equity
vs J9 with spades 35% Equity
vs flush draw 63% Equity
vs OESD 68% Equity


Just by these numbers we can see that the number of times we are ahead it's no more than 2 to 1 (and most of the time 55/45 or 60/40) and the number of times we are behind, we are far behind (from 50/50 against KQ of spades to a 48-1 dog, with the in between at 7-1 dog)

Also taken into account that this is a tournament, you don't need to take marginal edges. In fact, in a cash game, this is a pretty routine fold unless a donk is playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to lend some % to KJ, QJ, and even AK, AA, KK, QQ, AT, KT, QT. all of which seriously affect our position postively.

I'm not so comfortable getting involved with absolute unknowns this early for such a potentially slight edge, but i could see an argument for pushing or calling/open pushing a 23456810 on turn (against some oppentents).

[Sykes]

ok.

vs KJ 68% Equity
vs QJ 59% Equity
vs AK 78% Equity (I highly doubt he has AK here, in fact the number of times he has AK here is LESS then the number of times he has JJ here)
vs QQ 59% Equity
vs KK 31% Equity
vs AT/KT 70% Equity
vs QT 61% Equity


We are still no more than a 2.5 to 1 favorite and most of the time a 60/40 favorite.

[curtains]

Let me tell you there is nothing worse in the world than Bottom two pair on a flop where the flop makes 4 to a straight, AND HAS A FLUSH DRAW. I've started treating such a hand as being not very strong. I would actually check the flop and see what develops. Try to imagine you don't really have two pair, it deceives you about the strength of your hand in such cases.

After busting a billion times in such spots in my youth while moving up through the lower limits, I made a pact to tread VERY carefully in this specific situation in unraised pots with deep stacks. Whatever, I might be too big of a wimp but I think it's saved me a lot of trouble/headaches.

Note itll never fit into this description if I have AA because I will have raised PF. Actually AA might be a better hand to have here than T8, someone can run the math if you want.