Give me a turn line

[spiff21]

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This is a challenging hand because I don't think that villian's flop raise tells us anything (particularly if Hero is perceived as having a wide 3 bet range from the BB).

Can anyone eliminate any of villian's pf 4 handed utg raising range based on that flop? IMO he would raise with a pp, any peice of the flop, overs (esp if he views Hero as Laggy pf or capable of folding), set. Villian could even have 98s here.

I think that a turn donk or cr would fold small-mid pps. That opinion seems to be in the minority, but given vilians realtively low wtsd, hero's pf aggro, and the scary q on the turn-i see villian folding small-mid pps frequently.


There are 2 major downsides to the cr.

1. We have to call a 3 bet so our oesd can get expensive. When we get 3 bet and we hit a king (or jack) on the river: are we ready to cf the river? It could get more expensive.

2. When he calls the cr, we are proboly going to fire again on the river even when we miss.

One advantage to the cr is that he might chicken out and check behind on the turn giving us a free card. I don't think this happens a lot at 10/20 against this opponetnt.

IMO cr is the worst of the 3 options here for these reasons.

The turn donk will cost us 2 bets on the turn at worst,and it does have some fold equity.

c/c has the advantage that it costs us at most one bet (and occasionally none). We have the odds to call with our oesd and pair draw in this pot.

The difference between c/c and donk hinges on weather our donk fold equity makes up for the times we get raised and the times we would have gotten a free card. I don't have the energy to look at the math right now, but my gut feeling is that this is close. One other thing to consider is that when he raises our turn donk bet we will very likely get to cr his ass on the river when we hit the str8.

In summary I vote that turn donk and c/c are about equal with the donk bet slightly in front. Turn cr is well behind the other 2 (but still not horrible).

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I like this analysis.

After reading it and thinking some more I think the donk bet is my number one.

1. He might fold if he has a pocket pair.

2. If he is on some kind of semibluff with a straight draw for example, a donk bet on the turn is (in my experience at least) likely to throw him off his semibluffing. As I find tighter/better players aren't as likely to bet the river as a bluff if I have taken the betting initiative away from them on the turn, and then check to them on the river.

3. If we donk bet we will get more information from villain on the turn. If he just calls we can assume he is currently not so strong. We can therefore rather safely bet/fold a J or a K on the river since those cards likely improves his hand to a straight, or perhaps two pair. On the other hand if he raises our donk bet we are much more likely to get in a c/r if we river a straight. (Which we cannot be as certain about if we just c/c the turn)