Winning system FOUND!

[brendanb438]

Artdogg do you know any website where I can get the results and moneylines/point spreads for the last 4 or so years of the NFL. I will go through the results and I will figure out if this system would have done well with the NFL. Anyone know of a good website for these past results?

Brendan

[smbruin22]

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Artdogg do you know any website where I can get the results and moneylines/point spreads for the last 4 or so years of the NFL. I will go through the results and I will figure out if this system would have done well with the NFL. Anyone know of a good website for these past results?

vegasinsider.com used to have alot of good stuff, but not sure anymore (i don't go there)... even USATODAY.com might have what you want (they don't shy away from point spread ATS stuff)..

i think you'll find spreads are pretty efficient in aggregate. now, if this guy's selection are pretty small # of games and he has special insight, then he may have something and are you going to be able to model it properly???.... BTW, i haven't read every entry, so maybe he did model it....

but i can almost guarantee there are no huge trends, like underdogs covering point spread 58% the last 4 years. one season maybe, but that's arguably noise and can easily reverse violently.

Brendan

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[34TheTruth34]

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OP explained his method of capping on page 8.


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I guess that depends on what you mean by "explained". Can somebody explain this to me in English in like a couple of sentences?

[chan123bet]

frankster mentioned that he will swallow the loss after 3 straight losses on his picks (which never happened) and start fresh so it isn't exactly a martingale system?

[bugstud]

seattle lost
6-5 monday ytd: 33-9 $2764.39

$2656.61 to win 1535.61


so [censored] hot. lol.

[AaronL]

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frankster mentioned that he will swallow the loss after 3 straight losses on his picks (which never happened) and start fresh so it isn't exactly a martingale system?

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Martingale with a stop loss ;-) If I told you that you could martingale on roulette wheel if you just stopped after three loses would you do it? Making multiply bets that are -EV is -EV long term, and betting (especially blind) big favs in baseball is widely accepted as being -EV... If you can't bet big favs straight then martingale (even with a stop loss) is a losing plan...

[Artdogg]

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Artdogg do you know any website where I can get the results and moneylines/point spreads for the last 4 or so years of the NFL. I will go through the results and I will figure out if this system would have done well with the NFL. Anyone know of a good website for these past results?


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covers.com has just about everything you need its just kind of annoying to search for it. Ill look at it too tomorrow when im less drunk, but just make sure if you post numbers to leave out week 17 because its meaningless a high % of the time so naturally some of the big favorites will lose. I think this system may be possible in the NFL just because almost every game is so meaningful while they arent in baseball or basketball, so looking to see what 10+ or 14+ point favs lost in the last 4 years or so (lost the game obviously, not the spread) is probably a good idea. Vegasinsider probably has it too like smchant mentioned.