25-50 fake weak lead

cwl · #1 06-09-2006, 03:21 PM

i dont remember seeing many posts with fake weak leads so i thought this might be a little interesting. is the river a good spot for this or no? this is 6 handed on full tilt and the villian is a relatively aggro 2+2er (unless i have peoples screen names confused). i have 5.7k and villian has me covered.

preflop:
villian raises to 175 utg. folded to me with red QQ in the BB and i call.

flop [J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] pot 400
it goes check/check

turn [J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] pot 400
i bet 300, villian calls

river [J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] pot 1000
i bet 200

revlis87 · #2 06-09-2006, 03:24 PM

your bad at poker. if he has a J hes gonna pay you anyway and your gonna get a lot less because a pot raise is a lot less. Either pot or check - he will either put you on a J as it is or will just call with like 88 or something. He doesn't call turn with AK and try to raise you off a 200 bet on the river often, if ever. Unless its me.

ITILTEZ · #3 06-09-2006, 03:29 PM

Would you do this bet with a Q? If I would face a bet like this from a good solid player like you I wouldnt raise without very good hand. Unless offcourse I would have seen you doing before with actual weaker holdings.
Imho if you want to get him bluff/value raise with weaker hand you should bet something like $300-$400.. it seems more like a normal bet, but still a kind that you really dont wanna face a raise with.

AdamBragar · #4 06-09-2006, 03:31 PM

I think I like the fake weak lead the worst, cause often times it'll just get called by even semi strong hands.

I'd try for the checkraise here.

cwl · #5 06-09-2006, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
your bad at poker. if he has a J hes gonna pay you anyway and your gonna get a lot less because a pot raise is a lot less. Either pot or check - he will either put you on a J as it is or will just call with like 88 or something. He doesn't call turn with AK and try to raise you off a 200 bet on the river often, if ever. Unless its me.

[/ QUOTE ]

im a little confused about what scenario you think im missing out on.
- do you think he would raise a potish bet with a J?
- do you think he would call a potish bet with a mid pair?
- is there some other scenario your saying is likely that im overlooking?

Sunny Mehta · #6 06-09-2006, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]

im a little confused about what scenario you think im missing out on.
- do you think he would raise a potish bet with a J?
- do you think he would call a potish bet with a mid pair?
- is there some other scenario your saying is likely that im overlooking?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, plus the action makes it very unlikely he has a J.....this spot is somewhat dependent on your image - i.e. - how often you're bluffing/looked up by 88 if you pot this river.....but assuming you haven't been playing really fast, I like the weak lead fine.....also, how bluff-raisey is villain?.....

durrrr · #7 06-09-2006, 05:01 PM

200 just looks fishy here imo.

EDIT: 500-700ish, and checking are both good imo.

cwl · #8 06-09-2006, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
200 just looks fishy here imo.

EDIT: 500-700ish, and checking are both good imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

a couple people have posted suggestions for different plays that may well be better than what i did but its not clear to me why your advocating what you are or how you think villian will react with the hands he might have had. what specific hands are you saying you think villian has here and what do you think he does vs the different bet sizes?

durrrr · #9 06-09-2006, 05:11 PM

imo villain has either a 1pair hand (low pp, or a Q), or a rivered flush, w/ a very slim possibility of a flopped/turned boat. A queen is paying off most bets, a low pp isnt paying off almost any bets, and a flush/fh is raising most bets. Imo the best way to play against this range is to bet ~550 or so- as youll get paid by a lot of weak hands- and raised by a lot of stronger ones.

El Diablo · #10 06-09-2006, 07:35 PM

cwl,

I'd bet more or check.

200 is small enough that a hand that has showdown value can just call you. He'd probably do that for more money as well.

The only bluff hand he should have is something like KT. 200 looks fishy, like you're trying to induce a raise, and I would just fold to that w/ KT - I think many others would as well. Also, less money to try for. It just doesn't feel like a realistic bluff at all.

So, I think you lose value from a hand that is suspicious of you and don't make it worthwhile enough to bluff raise. On the other hand, betting 600-700 or so makes it look much more realistic that you have some sort of hand that can't take much action or is a real bluff.

edited to add: reading responses, I could have just written "what durrr said."