(109) bubble donking against aggro sb.. 88

[raptor517]

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and i dont think i could fold TT. TT im in. holla


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By your same rationale, TT is by no means an instacall.

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reluctantly calling is far from instacalling. but against the typical sb there, including this guy, i would call. holla

[raptor517]

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If you want the poll to work then his pushing and his Min raising is a lot different. If you said he pushed, then I don't think anyone would say call...well maybe less than 10% would say call. But in this spot I could def. see how someone would say push. There is like Fake FE in this poll.

RIIIGGGGGEEEEDDD!!!!

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2.4 or whatever to 1. im pretty sure even these idiots in the 109s will call there with whatever they min raised wtih. holla

[ilya]

Well I voted fold intuitively, but folding mid-pairs is my "specialty."

[caretaker1]

What has the big stack been doing with 4 and 5 players?

[Gramps]

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Refer to Newt Buggs' post. This should help clarify

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Not really. Shoving "blind" is a reckless (read "-$EV") play, given the stack sizes and the payout structure against an "aggro" big stack (who just MR).

[Scruff]

OK, I went to ICM to try to figure this out for myself. Very interesting tool. Thanks for the PM noodleman.

If you fold, $EV is .2012
If you push and win, $EV is .3056
If you push and lose, $EV is .0000

We'll assume you have no fold equity, but I can't believe that's true. If you could fold him with an all-in your equity would be .2617

Anyway you need to win 65.8% if he calls to make it a =$EV -- I wouldn't have realized that. I think I finally get it.

Basically you have much more than that if he has an underpair (very unlikely if this is his only min raise) or something like 65s you are 4:1. If he has something like 97s, you are pretty much exactly breaking even $EV-wise. If he has an over and an under off suit, like A7os, you are 71-29. If he has two overs you are only 55-45. Of course you are crushed by the overpair. And two overs or the over pair are his most likely holdings here, by a fairly long shot.

But if your fold equity is 10% you only need to be ahead 57-43 for a push to break even $ wise. If he folds one time in 6, you are =$EV if you are just a 52-48 fav - you are better than that against anything but a pocket pair 99-AA (way behind) or two suited cards A-9 counterfeiting one of your suits (exactly 52-48). Against anything else you are +$EV.

I'll take your word for it that the fold equity isn't >10%, considering the trap possibilities, so I can now see why I should fold.

Thanks for being patient, I learned a lot tonight.

It's funny, because I tend to advocate not taking risks when you are the big stack at bubble time in a S&G. I never realized that that is what you also do if you are short stacked, but even with another short stack or two.

[z32fanatic]

I voted fold before reading the responses. After reading the responses, I still think folding is the best play. With 1200 left after posting, you still have FE against the big stack. Also, if the big stack folds next hand you can take other guy's blind. That, coupled with the fact that he probably has 2 overs, I would fold. I'm probably pushing TT+, AQ+ here because of the increased likelyhood of being way ahead. AQ would be reluctant, but i'm not good enough to fold AK or TT here.

[raptor517]

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It's funny, because I tend to advocate not taking risks when you are the big stack at bubble time in a S&G.

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good yer gonna learn a ton. this is precisely the time you SHOULD be taking risks. everyone else is playing 'oh i gotta sneak into the money' poker, and you need to be taking advantage of this by constantly putting pressure on them to make a bad call. if u have a ton of chips u should be using them to attack. holla

[tigerite]

I went for fold here without even thinking about it too much, and was surprised by all the votes for push. Glad I wasn't wrong or something. Against a select few opponents it might be ok to push though, I suppose.

[FUJItheFISH]

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He shouldn't stop for fear of flaming, he should learn why his thinking is wrong.
Kissing Raptors ass isn't going to make you or anyone else a better player.

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He should stop for fear of his life! Holla!


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