QJo turn play

EgoSlasher · #1 06-08-2006, 01:32 PM

Opponent is 36/15 after 40 hands. Who raises here and who just calls and why?

All thoughts and comments appreciated

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets. Hero?

philnewall · #2 06-08-2006, 01:43 PM

Um i fold because we got a 1-card 4-th nut flush draw and overcards that are severely tainted.

Nick C · #3 06-08-2006, 01:44 PM

I just call because BB is unlikely to actually fold (at least not immediately, if ever), and spending 3 more BBs to try to win this pot UI is kind of an expensive adventure.

EgoSlasher · #4 06-08-2006, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Um i fold because we got a 1-card 4-th nut flush draw and overcards that are severely tainted.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really see the reverse domination here. Villain could easily have just A hi, a straight draw, a pp, or 1p. Q8 and J8 are possible but I don't think it's enough to force us off the hand on the turn. We could have as many as 15 outs and we're getting 5:1 even if we discount that down to 9 we still have enough to call this turn.

El Ishmael · #5 06-08-2006, 02:30 PM

I really dislike raising here.

allaboutmyfetti · #6 06-08-2006, 02:40 PM

PF - standard
flop - standard continuation bet. villian pulled the whole c/r-lead line which doesn't necessarily mean you are too far behind.

turn - I would peel and fold river UI. There is no need to believe we're drawing dead or that our overcard outs are completely dirty.

Str8Fish · #7 06-08-2006, 04:29 PM

:grunch:

on the flop after the c/r, we have 3 outs to overs, 1 out to J-high BDFD, 0.5 outs to BDSD = 4.5 outs = ~9:1. The pot is now 7.33:1, which is less than the pot odds. Ok, so do you think that you can make up 1BB on later streets? I would have personally folded at the flop... but let's say you wanted to see for implied odds... ok so the turn only slightly helps us. We now have 9 outs to a J-high flush, but the board is paired. All 9 of our outs can't be good, but to call we need at least 8.5 of them to be good. Maybe we can add 3 outs to overs still? I don't think so... maybe 1 out to overs now that the board is paired, a flush draw completed, and a straight could have flopped. I'm very torn about calling here.

Range: A5 (8), 56 (6), 55 (1), 66 (3), 88 (3), A2d-ATd (6), 86 (9), 99 (6), TT (3?)

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 84.5163 % 85.39% 00.00% { TT-88, 66-55, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, A5s, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, 86s, 65s, A5o, 86o, 65o }
Hand 2: 15.4837 % 15.64% 00.00% { QsJd }

15.64 win % = 7.5 outs = 5:1 hand odds... pot is laying down 5.16:1, so this is a really razor thin call on the turn.

El Ishmael · #8 06-08-2006, 04:38 PM

I think a lot more one-pair hands are possible then you account for, and I'd probably discount TT-88 massively (which would support a fold more, I know, just nitpicking). Still, I think we have enough outs to call on the turn.

Str8Fish · #9 06-08-2006, 04:42 PM

yea if you account for more 8x hands, then it does bring the range higher for a more easy call.

EvenFlow · #10 06-08-2006, 04:48 PM

I call because I'm totally lost what BB has (pair? made flush?
straight draw?) and I prefer to keep variance down when I
have no idea where I am. But I suspect I'm weak (posting
blind).