10-20 NL Folding bottom set vs a lizard - Page 3

PickyTooth · #21 06-08-2006, 03:59 PM

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I don't have the numbers, but this is pretty much a math problem. Given action we can be fairly sure this is 77,99,T8, 85 or 97. It's never going to be an overpair, and if this is 67 (can be depending on what I wrote earlier, how tizerd views both hero and UTG), I think he would very often cold-call and get it in on a blank turn instead.

Somebody who has the time, just do the math and find out how often it's going to be 97 given the hands provided and I think we will have an answer that is suggesting this is a fold.

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This is sorta why I said it was Tizard because quite frankly I'm just not sure about his range. I came pretty much to the same conclusion you did regarding his range.

Maybe the other regulars that play vs him can help out abit with the range.

jaral · #22 06-08-2006, 03:59 PM

No way you fold this against Tizerd. I dont have a huge number of hands with him but he has done some odd bad plays in the hands that we have.

iRockhoes1 · #23 06-08-2006, 04:02 PM

You play tournaments, don't you?

I actually play the 25/50 and 50/100 games at tilt and ub (saugustine). A utg raise at this level is unlikely from 10 8. I am not saying in no way shape or form he could not have the made straight. In the long run, this is a scared fold. I'd rather be pushing here than folding. Am I waiting for AA vs KK to double up? It is likely you are ahead so go with it.

PickyTooth · #24 06-08-2006, 04:05 PM

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You play tournaments, don't you?

I actually play the 25/50 and 50/100 games at tilt and ub (saugustine). A utg raise at this level is unlikely from 10 8. I am not saying in no way shape or form he could not have the made straight. In the long run, this is a scared fold. I'd rather be pushing here than folding. Am I waiting for AA vs KK to double up? It is likely you are ahead so go with it.

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IROCK,

you missread the action.

ps. mdma youre so smart.

iRockhoes1 · #25 06-08-2006, 04:05 PM

How did I misread?

capone0 · #26 06-08-2006, 04:05 PM

iRock-your probally a million times better than me but Lizard is one of the cold callers not the raiser.

iRockhoes1 · #27 06-08-2006, 04:06 PM

If everyone has such an amazing read on this guy, why is this a post?

capone0 · #28 06-08-2006, 04:07 PM

He cold calls the UTG raiser. He's not the raiser. Raiser PF folds.

MDMA · #29 06-08-2006, 04:09 PM

iRockhoes - That's what I tried to explain in my first post, I think a lot of people are missing that there are THREE people involved in the action, preflopraiser betting out, hero raising and a THIRD guy, Tizerd, putting in the 3rd bet without investing anything yet on the flop. Had it been tizerd raising UTG preflop with hero and button calling, and then tizerd betting out, hero raising, button folding and tizerd 3-beting, then I'm obviously allin.

PickyTooth · #30 06-08-2006, 04:10 PM

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If everyone has such an amazing read on this guy, why is this a post?

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I dont have an amazing read that's why I'm asking about his range.

it's just that your first reply didnt make any sense because you thought he was utg.

Maybe you still think its a push but maybe not as "miserable" of a fold ?