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#11
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Isnt AcQc a likely explanation to the fast play on the flop. A set wouldnt fire again on river.
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#12
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I like a preflop raise as you have a hand that plays well in a multi way pot and enough pot equity edge to justify the raise anyways. I actually think you should cap the flop for value as most of the time your aggression on the flop will not be taken as having such a strong hand where as a turn raise alerts everyone. I think you can often cap the flop and with a non club turn card get two bets in on the turn as well. I think given the action his most likely holding is AA with the ace of clubs. Despite that I also believe that it would be correct for him to also bet out on the turn if he had QQ with the queen of clubs and since he didn't meet any resistance he may also be correct in betting the river for value. That all said I believe you have no choice but to call down and hope for the best. You certainly don't need to be right very often to show a profit in this spot. But NEVER NEVER fold in this spot in a pot this large.
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#13
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I would have called the river in such a big pot, SB could have smaller made flush from flop and hoping to get a bigger but weak 1 card flush to fold. In any case, the pot is pretty big and you have second nuts, don't 'save' bets in those situations, winning 5% of the time will show profit.
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#14
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KSOT,
The reason you want to raise preflop even though you could be up against AA or ak, kq etc. is due to your pot equity edge. If you watch the WPT you know how they give the percentages preflop, post flop etc. Well if you were to look at your percentage with the kjs preflop it would certianly give you a percentage greater than your fair share in a multiway pot. So lets say there were 7 people in the hand your fair share would be to win 1 in 7 or 14.3 percent of the time. My guess would be that the kjs would win around 15 to 25% of the time and sometimes more depending on what hands your opponents limped in with. So because you have this edge you should raise. If you were in a multiway pot and you had the nut flush draw after the flop you would raise right? You would do this because you had great pot equity edge even though you only had ace high. The situation preflop with kjs is no different. In the hand you described you also hd a chance to possibly steal the button and you may get a free turn card due to the check to the rasier mentality. So as you can see mant great things will happen with a preflop raise here. Hope this helps and all commnets appreciated. |
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