Rethinking Hand Values in Short Handed Play

[bruce]

For a while now when I've been playing in MTT's or SNG's I have
had conflicting thoughts on how to play Ace rag when I am short stacked. By shortstacked I'm talking about me having less than 10 big blinds. Conventional wisdom dictates that we push in this situation. We're shortstacked and we have Ace high which may be the best hand. Sometimes if called our Ace high holds up and we double up. But often times when called we are dominated. I don't have accurate records but I'm thinking I have been busted multiple times when I'm called and dominated and I don't think this compensates for the times I pick up the blinds or win the pot.

Case in point is a hand from last nights $30 Stars rebuy tournament for a WSOP ME seat. We're down to four players.
Only one seated is awarded and other three players gets $650.

Blinds are 4000/8000 with antes.

I am shortstack with t92,000 and UTG. The other three players have me doubled or tripled. They don't appear to be superstars, but have mucho chips.

I am UTG with A5o. Is this an obvious push? Blinds have much bigger stacks than me, but I do have FE. If I am called I'm probably in bad shape, either dominated or against a medium pair. KQ may call me, but I am only a small favorite.

What do you think?

Comments appreciated.

Bruce

[AceLuby]

Easy push..4 handed and you're getting a free orbit if you take it right there. Ace high four handed is pretty good for a raise, gotta push and hope to get doubled up where you can do some real damage.

[Foucault]

Someone who knows the math better than I do might straighten me out, but I don't push here with 12 BB's. I imagine that if pushing A5 is profitable here, then pushing any two is profitable, and pushing JTs might well be more profitable.

What were the stack sizes of the others?

[adanthar]

With 12 BB it's definitely not an easy push. My gut says it's a close fold with a standard raise being second.

12 BB is very different from 8 BB.

[TheNewf]

I will either standard raise or fold here but never just push. We have enough chips to standard raise and fold to a reraise if we run into something that surely has us dominated so why get pot-committed. Given how far behind we are in chips I'm leaning towards a steal raise though, but it depends on factors like table image and how aggressively the other players defend their blinds. Folding here is fine if the table conditions are poor for a steal.

[rockin]

Fold. 12bb's is push or fold territory, since a standard raise is going to take us in desperate area and a CB is mostly the rest of our stack. A standard raise here is no good. That is why this is a fold. You still have 12 bb's and the remainder (albeit only 3 players) of the table still to act. You can pick up a lot of chips from button and SB even when you are 4 handed. Remember, they know that everyone's raising and calling standards are reduced because of short handed play. I can see pushing this, but I prefer a fold, unless we had been tighty mcnuts up to this point, which I doubt.

[NoahSD]

From a cEV perspective, you should be pushing really really wide here. If they all have you covered and call with 66+, ATs, AJo+, KQ (which I think is about right), it's +cEV to push 94% of hands. You should push everything but 83o, 82o, 72o, 62o, 52o, 24o, 23o.

But, there's typically a steep payout jump from 4th place to 3rd place. If I assume that you all have equal stacks, and the payout's the same as the 20/180s, then you should only push 66+,ATo+,A7s+,KQo,KJs+.

Anyway, tell me the stack sizes and the payout and I'll plug it into SnGPT for you. Or, better yet, do it yourself: http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com/ .

[locutus2002]

It's too early to push with 12XBB.

Fold is probably better. I'd make standard raise knowing that a5o is a little light.