100nl - turn decision

[Leonid]

Unfortunately no reads on villian [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG ($116.80)
MP ($112.65)
Button ($174.10)
Hero ($100)
BB ($110.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9h, Th. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, Button raises to $3, Hero (poster) raises to $8.5, 1 fold, Button calls $6.

Flop: ($19) 8h, Ac, 4d (2 players)
Hero bets $17, Button calls $17.

Turn: ($53) Qh (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $35, Hero?


How should I play this? Given the way the hand was played out I think my straight outs are good nearly all the time since villian will almost never have KJ here. Thus, if I assume I have 12 outs I can profitably call this turn bet if he'll call my river push when I improve (and he's going to most of the time - my push will be small compared to the size of the pot). Am I being too liberal with how many outs I think I have? If so then what's the best line? Should I have bet the turn?

Thanks.

[bent96]

I don't like preflop much. Without stats that say he has a loose raising range I don't reraise w/junk. You really shouldn't make moves like this w/o reads. On the flop, I don't know if people agree with me here, but he either has an A x or he doesn't. $17 is good but $16 will make him fold JJ the same. I doubt you lose any FE between the two. Does it matter much? No, not really.

As for your turn decision:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...t=1#Post6006696

This should help you accurately figure out how much you can call and how much he can call.

[Lennon]

Push. This is a great semi-bluffing opportunity. I think you have a lot of fold equity against AK. Villian has to fear a set or AQ. You think villian's paying you off if the flush hits?

[Leonid]

For any given opponent, his raising standards are going to be much wider when folded to on the button. For that reason I believe that it's important to reraise in these spots. If you haven't been doing it, you'll be surprised as to how many times villian is going to fold when it's back to him, or on the flop when you cbet. But you do make a good point that my fold equity doesn't change much between $16 and $17 on that flop. Also, there will be times when you hit a very strong hand, and you're probably going to see a lot of action when that does happen since villian can't put you on the marginal hand that you have. When this does happen and you go to showdown you're gonna have a very laggy image from there on out, which is awesome as long as you tighten up later on - you'll get paid off a lot more that way when you get a strong hand. Obviously though, if it's 4bet back to you you can easily fold here.

But thanks for the link, I'll check that out right now.

[Leonid]

[ QUOTE ]
Push. This is a great semi-bluffing opportunity. I think you have a lot of fold equity against AK. Villian has to fear a set or AQ. You think villian's paying you off if the flush hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on what he has. If he has AQ or AK then yeah, definetly. It's hard for him to put me on the flush since there was no draw off the flop. It looks more like I'm desperately trying to bluff with a hand that I went too far with.

[ZingyDNA]

I'd raise more if i wanna make a move Pf. And it's not a good idea to make a move on an unkown. YOu don't know if he's paying you off if you hit something.

[Leonid]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise more if i wanna make a move Pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like almost any hand that's going to fold to a 4x raise is also going to fold when I raise to 3x, but a really good hand won't fold to either. So I don't really see the point of this.

Also, I don't like reraising any more than I did because it'll make him more committed on the flop which I don't want since I'm cbetting every time.

[sigurrostyp]

preflop fold