Castillo vs Corrales

DropGems · #1 06-01-2006, 08:10 PM

Coming up this weekend... What do you guys think are some good bets for this?

Tuds75 · #2 06-02-2006, 12:50 AM

I like Castillo, but the price, -280 or so, is horrible. Chico is being very undervalued, but I don't think he is going to win so I won't bet him. The oddsmakers need to realize Chico is a legit top quality fighter and that he won the first their first meeting.

I wouldn't bet Castillo at anything over -185, and even that is number is a reach. If Castillo's odds don't come down I would recommend that everyone should enjoy this fight without any betting interest and just for all the excitment it will bring to boxing fans.

I am looking at the O/U to see if there is a better bet there. More in the next few days.

Tuds

ThaHero · #3 06-02-2006, 01:12 PM

I'm not as intelligent as Tuds in this fight, so take my analysis with a grain of sand lol.

I agree with Castillo's line being too high. I do think he will probably win, not necessarily easily, but probably in exciting fashion. Diego won't change his spots now. He will more than likely once again go inside and trade hooks, which favors Castillo. I would consider a small bet on Corralles if he went to +300, but I doubt he goes that far.

The o/u is at 8.5 so I'm looking at that. In the second meeting Corrales blamed his early(4th rd) loss on the fact he came back too soon from their previous bloodbath. Well it didn't seem to affect Castillo much. This time he's had 8 months to recover while Castillo had a little tune up in
February which I missed. Maybe it's On Demand? Anyway, the over is +106 and under is -116. My gut tells me Castillo knocks him out again, maybe in 6 or 7, but that's possibly pushing it too close. I really can't say and can't pull the trigger, so I might just use the money, buy some beers and enjoy the fight.

3 big fights in 3 straight weekends though, this should be a pretty exciting month!

Tuds75 · #4 06-02-2006, 01:29 PM

Hero,
Good to see you weigh in on this fight.

Their second fight, though short, was very exciting. The difference between the 2 fights was that Castillo did not make weight at first attempt (in the second fight). He then was allowed 2 hrs or so to get to 135. He actually showed HEAVIER in 2 hours. Castillo was NEVER planning on making weight for the second fight. Chico is also a big 135 guy and needed to cut a lot of weight. Chico pushed himself in the previous couple of weeks to get to the 135 weight, while Castillo knew he couldnt get down so he didn't even waste the energy to cut to weight. It might sound like a big deal, but if you were going to fight at a set weight and you busted your azz to get to that weight, while you opponet never even tries to cut weight and is not as spent and now weighs more . The interesting part was Chico and Castillo came in close to the same weight for the second fight (actually Chico might have been heavier), but all that weight put on between the weighin and fight is just water weight. Morale of the story, Chico was fighing a fighter who was a whole weight class heavier for that fight.

I have read an article where Chico says he WILL continue to fight on the inside in the 3rd fight. Could be postering, but I believe him. This worries me about the under, but he did that in the first fight and it worked out for him.

Actually 4 big fights in the next 3 weeks, Cotto/Malignaggi is also next Saturday and should be an interesting fight.

Enjoy the action

Tuds

DropGems · #5 06-02-2006, 01:39 PM

Thanks for the opinions. I figured Castillo would win as well after the last fight. I was looking at the over/under but they still seem sketchy as well so i might just enjoy the fight with no bets.

ThaHero · #6 06-02-2006, 02:08 PM

Yes, forgot about the Cotto fight. And just noticed Castillo is fighting Cotto in November! Should be interesting!

ThaHero · #7 06-02-2006, 07:31 PM

Castillo once again "fails" to make weight. I don't know if it changes anything though but thought it was worth mentioning.

Miles Ahead · #8 06-02-2006, 08:20 PM

It means the fight might not happen and if Corrales agrees to go ahead, Castillo is once again going to have a significant advantage going into the fight.

I think Pinnacle has actually taken down the odds for the fight, now.

Tuds75 · #9 06-02-2006, 08:24 PM

STAY AWAY FROM THIS FIGHT. Here is a Very interesting and telling quote from Castillo's promoter, Bob Arum:

"This is a complete disgrace," said Arum. "As far as I'm concerned, I do not represent him. If I was Corrales, I wouldn't fight him. This is a disgrace to the sport of boxing."

I completley agree with Arum and if I was Chico I would have Castillo give up half his purse me (Chico)or I would cancel the fight. Chico didn't sign-up to fight a junior welter weight.

Tuds