$10 NL: Top and bottom pair, coordinated board

jskinn04 · #1 06-01-2006, 09:43 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($30.35)
SB ($11.10)
Hero ($25.51)
UTG ($8.95)
UTG+1 ($15.62)
UTG+2 ($9.40)
MP1 ($12.56)
MP2 ($7.19)
MP3 ($11.20)
CO ($2.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.05. CO posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.2, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.20, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.10.

Flop: ($0.85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.1, MP1 raises to $0.2, CO calls $0.20, Hero raises to $1.5, UTG+1 raises to $2.8, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $15, UTG+1 calls $12.62 (All-In), Hero calls $0.42.

Turn: ($32.09) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($32.09) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $32.09

Villian is 47/28/4.5. Decent LAG all things considered. We've got a little history. I don't like him, he doesn't like me I don't think. The check-raise is questionable, but I'm happy to try to stack him if he's got an overpair or something. I was thinking that I'd lose a lot when I'm behind but I might also win quite a bit from overpairs, which are numerous (6AA, 6KK, 6QQ, 6JJ-although JJ is flipping with me). Once he makes a large raise over another raise and my big check-raise, I just got stupid. At this point, I think I should have assigned his range as likely 88-JJ,AA,QJ, a flush draw and straight draw, possibly T9s, 98s. Incidentally, because he's LAG, it's not all that likely that he actually has an overpair type hand and he would like raise w/ a hand like KQ, KJ, QJ, etc. Seems that any non-made hand (one pair) would only call my raise and not reraise me with the other guy showing strength, too. There are 16 possible ways to hold QJ for the nuts in this situation. There are 5 ways for him to have a set. Both are raping me. A combo draw still has solid equity against me, and I'm only beating 98 for the two-pair hands, which are much less numerous. Thus, I'm thinking that he's a substantial favorite to hold the nuts when he overraises me.

My question is... given my analysis that he really likely has me smoked, should I just fold to his flop raise. In retrospect, I think I should have called his raise and evaluated with a strong lean towards folding to any large bets. I still don't think it's out of the question that he's only got one pair, but it's not that likely he'd min bet, 4-bet that kind of hand.

Mal_Pais · #2 06-01-2006, 10:47 PM

I fold this preflop. With the cold callers behind him and his minraise, we have to nail the flop. And you did. Nasty board. Lead the flop, and I think this is much easier to play. As played, the flop action says we're beat. I think. I've seen some wacky stuff at NL10. His minraise of your check raise screams monster. I'm torn between folding or getting it in the middle. He's not laying his hand down.