A tough river... or is it?

[meep_42]

Live 8/16 - MP is a tightish player and somewhat aggressive, but is still somewhat of a typicial SS player in that he will call a lot with both strong and marginal holdings. I can't recall him making an unsuccessful bluff and he will raise when he thinks his hand is best.

I am in the SB with red Aces.

1 limper to MP who raises, folds to me - I 3-bet, BB and limper fold, MP calls.

HU to the flop for 8SB.
Flop is A89r - I bet, he calls

HU to turn for 5BB.
Turn is T(A89) completing the rainbow. I bet, he calls.

HU to river for 7BB.
River is J(TA89) - I...

What's the preferred line here?

-d

[toss]

Bet because he might check behind with AK, AJ, AT. Why didn't he raise the turn with two pair or TP +OESD? I think he's less likely since you say he'll call down with hands both weak and strong.

[Dootch]

toss would you call if he raises?

[eclinchy]

I'd put him on AJ and bet... if he raises I make a crying call since that's a good spot for a bluff, he knows you don't have a queen.

[bobhalford]

I would bet/call. It's not a big pot and he could very well try to represent a straight with a raise to take you off your hand or maybe he thinks AK/AJ/AT/JJ is good. I would feel forced to call a raise on the river because my hand is too good to fold. Checking may induce a bet from worse hands, but he would have to be bluffing to bet the river without the straight, and it's not that great of a bluff. Worse hands that will "bluff-raise" the river will not bet the river after you check. They will check behind and hope AK/Ax/JJ/AJ/KK is good. So you lose an extra bet when behind, but gain 2 bets sometimes when your hand is good. The rest of the time you gain 1 bet.

[Nick C]

Damn.

I guess I'd bet-call.

It sounds like you're getting called by worse hands.

I don't know if Villain will raise hands like AJ and JJ or not, but I think he could have those hands.

And if you want to see me playing a similar river like an idiot in 3/6 6-max, check out my recent hand with a set of sixes in the Small Stakes Short-handed Forum.

[meep_42]

My thoughts on the river were that villain could have AK, AQ, AJ, KK, QQ, JJ. I'm getting raised by AQ and QQ all the time and AJ/JJ some of the time. I'm getting a call from AK and KK and I don't think he bluffs here very often, if at all.

4 AQ and 6 QQ and I lose 2 bets, -20BB
3 AJ and 3 JJ and I win 1.5 bets, +9BB
4 AK and 6 KK and I win 1 bet, +10BB
------ = -1BB/26hands

Am I missing possible hands here? I don't think he raises AT here -- maybe ATs, and he definitely doesn't have KQ or QJ if he calls the flop. I also may be overestimating his AJ/JJ raising.

Check calling nets:

4 AQ and 6 QQ and I lose 1 bet, -10BB
3 AJ and 3 JJ and I win .5 bets, +3BB
4 AK and 6 KK check and I win 0 bets, 0BB
------ = -7BB/26hands

That this was a -EV river was my initial thought when the card hit the table. I made the wrong play and let him play the river perfectly.

-d

[GH.]

Pretty easy bet/call in my opinion - your hand is too strong to not bet for value and you can't fold or threebet after you get raised