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#1
05-27-2006, 11:58 PM
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10/20 big draw, three way action
This is actually a hand I read in Matros' blog. What are some possible lines on the flop? Would most guys stick it in here?
10/20 NL, 5 handed. Hero is BB with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain 1 ($6K) minraises to $40, Villain 2 ($7K) calls. Hero defends. Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero leads for $40, Villain 1 makes it $225, Villain 2 makes it $610, Hero...? 
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#4
05-28-2006, 12:13 AM
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Re: 10/20 big draw, three way action
Fold.
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#6
05-29-2006, 05:23 PM
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Re: 10/20 big draw, three way action
(Note: Hero has 2k in his stack.)
I think the following are reasonable assumptions. If I jam... 1) Both players fold about 25% of the time. 2) About 65% of the time I get heads-up with one of these guys (usually Villian 2). 3) About 10% of the time they both call. (I'll ignore the possibility of one of them calling the 2k, and then the other one knocking him out of the hand...for now.) If you buy those assumptions, EV(Jam) is roughly .25(1000) + .65(.38(4400)-2000) + .1(.27(6100)-2000) = 250-213-35 = 2. So it's close. When it's close, I like to jam.  And actually, when you throw in the chance of one of the other guys putting in 2k and then folding, I think it's a good spot.
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#8
05-29-2006, 09:09 PM
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Re: 10/20 big draw, three way action
[ QUOTE ]
I think the following are reasonable assumptions. If I jam... 1) Both players fold about 25% of the time. ---------- I'd like to see why you think that is resonable at all [/ QUOTE ] The first guy can have lots of hands. A7, AT, AJ, AK, AQ, KQ QJ, 78, 88, 99, two diamonds, QQ, KK, AA, just to name a few. He's put in $225 and would have to call $1800 more. He's only likely to call with a set, a straight, or maybe top two pair. These represent a pretty small fraction of his holdings. I'll conservatively estimate he folds 80 percent of his hands. You can try to enumerate his range and come up with an exact number if you want. The second guy has a much stronger range. Having a (small) bet and a raise, he has chosen to reraise. He's definitely calling my jam more often than he's not. Let's say his range is something like AJ, KJ, AA, JT, 77, TT, JJ, 89, KdQd, or AdXd. If he'll call with everything except the one pair hands, he's folding about 40% of the time. So I win the hand with no showdown .8 * .4 = 32% That 32% number might be a little high, but it's because of the above logic that I think my assumption of 25% fold equity is reasonable at all.
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