AQo river decision

[ckmo]

I've been running over the table

SB 20/0 over only 20 hands
UTG 38./4.75 over 21 hands

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button folds.

River: (17.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero ????

[GMMigge]

This doesn't look good, but you do have top two pair, big pot, no flushes available, and only 2-5 for a straight. I coldcall this, hoping SB doesn't 3-bet.

[MacGuyV]

Don't fold this. And 3bet the turn - I'm losing a ton of $ to 44 if SB has it here because top 2 with no possible straight or flush is sweet especially when you have overlay from UTG.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

3bet the turn, call the river.

[AdamL]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold this. And 3bet the turn - I'm losing a ton of $ to 44 if SB has it here because top 2 with no possible straight or flush is sweet especially when you have overlay from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

No possible straight or flush, uncoordinated board, you have the top two already tied up... and you think you're likely ahead when he raises the turn after all that flop action?

I think it's best to slow down at that point.

Here's how close it is:

Board: Ad Qc 4c 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.8010 % 41.42% 10.38% { AQo }
Hand 2: 48.1990 % 37.82% 10.38% { 99, 44, A4s, AQo, A4o }

Board: Ad Qc 4c 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.3637 % 29.19% 07.17% { AQo }
Hand 2: 52.7059 % 45.52% 07.19% { 99, 44, A4s, AQo, A4o }
Hand 3: 10.9305 % 10.91% 00.02% { 99, 44, A8s-A2s, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, A9o-A2o }


But if he has 44 or 99, he's capping. Just call the turn.