BB/hand & Win %'s of the top starting hands, some numbers?

kazana · #1 05-26-2006, 07:42 AM

Sorry if this is the wrong forum, but since the question is only about starting hands in limit holdem, and I'm pretty sure it's a very basic one, I posted it here (as opposed to the Texas Holdem board).

Let's get to the point:
After a string of bad beats during my starting session on dise, I wondered how often the "goodies" (TT+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AQo+) actually do hold up. So, I opened my PT and checked through the data.
To my surprise, in my (admittedly small) sample size of data, KK only held up 54% of the time and AJs won more often and more money (BB/hand) than them (don't have the exact numbers with me right now).
What confused me even more was the fact that A6s had a higher winning percentage than KK. This is when I realised, the small amount of data (only 8k hands, less than 100 hands per starting hand) must be skewing the results tremendously.

Now, what I'd like to know is if anyone with some serious amount of data (I'm talking 100k+ hands here, the more the better) ever compiled a list of the goodies I've mentioned above. Including the win percentages as well as the BB/hand values.

If you could share that with me I'd be delighted.
Please make sure that you only include limit holdem data, though.

Thanks in advance!

Kwaz · #2 05-26-2006, 08:17 AM

Vs random hands

bags · #3 05-26-2006, 08:24 AM

Do keep in mind that that chart is only stating how the hands fare heads up. If you use a program like poker stove you can get a better read based on various numbers of opponents in the hand.

bags · #4 05-26-2006, 08:30 AM

For instance, in a full ring game with 10 at the table AA has a pot equity of about 30-31%. I only did a sample of about 150K hands so I can't say where it would ultimately converge, but that just shows you the number of opponents matter drastically when asking a question like this.

Obviously as soon as people start folding your equity changes.

NIX · #5 05-26-2006, 08:37 AM

I think what the OP is getting at though is not data on how often a hand should win, but how often a hand does win. Less theoretical winning percentages and more actual winning percentages based on actual numbers from players.

These numbers would be interesting, but then, with all the different game conditions/playing styles, I'm not sure how useful they'd actually be.

kazana · #6 05-26-2006, 08:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Less theoretical winning percentages and more actual winning percentages based on actual numbers from players.

These numbers would be interesting, but then, with all the different game conditions/playing styles, I'm not sure how useful they'd actually be.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I'm looking for. The real numbers.
I'm well aware that the numbers vary depending on playing style and so on, but the general range of the better hands should be pretty close (I think, may be wrong here).
I expect to see bigger differences in the BB/hand values than in winning %'s as aggression will certainly have a big impact on how much you "squeeze out of hand" vs "investing more until showdown/fold"

Kwaz · #7 05-26-2006, 09:00 AM

Multiway.

kazana · #8 05-26-2006, 09:17 AM

Kwaz: Thanks for the links.
But that's not what I'm looking for. It's far too theoretical to be of much value.

No table consists of players where x players will take any of their random hands to the showdown. They'll take Ax a lot further than 72o.

That's why I'd like to see some real data. I'm not trying to find out what the EV of starting hand X in a pot with Y players is. I want to know the average percentages of certain hands holding up (the 14 hands I've mentioned in the first post) on real tables against thinking players, not against random cards held by ultra-calling-stations.

kerowo · #9 05-26-2006, 10:25 AM

The difference between theory and practice is that in theory there is no difference but in practice there is.

Basically, as you play more hands your win % with the hands will approach the theoretical limit. The math is right.

Over 100K+ hands my AA have won right around 80% of the time, that's the only one I can remember being away from PT. However, you don't play them like I do so your milage may vary. Understand that how often they win for you doesn't mean much at all. You could be running bad, you could be running hot and playing bad. Just because AA should win some percentage of the time doesn't mean it won't lose 8 times in a row or 10 or 20.

By the way, I've made more off of AA than I've netted over those hands...

kazana · #10 05-26-2006, 11:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, as you play more hands your win % with the hands will approach the theoretical limit. The math is right.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you're trying to tell me that theoretical simulations where every single random hand is just as likely to be taken to the showdown (i.e. % of AA taken to showdown = % of 72o taken to showdown) is a proper subsistute for reality?

Sorry if I'm ignorant, but I just can't believe that.
There aren't enough fish in the sea to make that claim hold true.