Quantifying the Divisional Round HFA

Scruff · #1 01-12-2006, 02:46 AM

Okay, the typical HFA is 3 points, right? Sagarin says 3.52 this year, close enough.

But we all know that home teams in this round win 84% of the time since the 2-Wild Card system came into play.

But you'd expect home teams in this round to win a bunch. They are at home, they have an extra week off, and they are the better team to boot.

So what I'm trying to figure out is how much to bump the 3.52 for the week off and home field in this particular round. If anyone has any ideas, I'd love the hear them. Thanks!

craig · #2 01-12-2006, 03:01 AM

The HFA doesn't increase because of a bye week. The other factors you mention do factor into the line though.

craig

Scruff · #3 01-12-2006, 03:23 AM

Really? It's been statistically proven that the bye-week isn't any advantage? I find that mind-boggling. How can there not be an advantage to being rested? Does rust offset it?

Or are you just saying they don't adjust the lines for it.

I'm new to this, I'll believe you, but I just want to make sure I'm understanding correctly.

craig · #4 01-12-2006, 03:32 AM

I am saying that a bye week doesn't change HFA; that is it. Other factors, like rest, etc... effect the line though. So, to state again, the HFA advantage is more of a constant.

craig

DougOzzzz · #5 01-12-2006, 03:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am saying that a bye week doesn't change HFA; that is it. Other factors, like rest, etc... effect the line though. So, to state again, the HFA advantage is more of a constant.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, Craig is giving you zero information. He is answering your question literally.

I'm sure the bye week does add a bit to the advantage. Also, I think that there is a chance that HFA is slightly greater in the playoffs, due to a changed atmosphere.

In other words, if you are evaluating both teams objectively and then setting a line, you probably have to add more than 3 points to the home team coming off the bye week. However, I can't say how much - and the 49-11 stat is not all that statistically unlikely.

Scruff · #6 01-12-2006, 05:55 AM

Thanks Doug, that helped clarify it. One question though . . .

"However, I can't say how much - and the 49-11 stat is not all that statistically unlikely."

Are you saying that you'd get the 49-11 stat even if you just used the typical 3 point edge, due to the home teams just being that much better teams?

DougOzzzz · #7 01-12-2006, 06:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Doug, that helped clarify it. One question though . . .

"However, I can't say how much - and the 49-11 stat is not all that statistically unlikely."

Are you saying that you'd get the 49-11 stat even if you just used the typical 3 point edge, due to the home teams just being that much better teams?

[/ QUOTE ]

No - I'm saying that, combined with the fact that home teams in the Divisional Round are generally superior to the road teams and they are coming off a bye week, it makes the expected winning percentage pretty high. Not as high as 80+ percent, but high enough that going 49-11 in 60 games is not all thet unlikely from a statistical perspective.

NoChance · #8 01-12-2006, 01:20 PM

The HFA after a bye week does not change. The stadium still fills up and is still as loud as it was before. None of that changes. What the bye week does is give teams who are not healthy extra time to get healthy. For some teams that are already healthy, it does nothing to help them. For other teams it's desperately needed. The extra week also gives the coaches more time to prepare. These things have nothing to do with HFA though. HFA would still be 3.58 (or whatever it is). The other factors are separate from that.

Kneel B4 Zod · #9 01-12-2006, 02:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Really? It's been statistically proven that the bye-week isn't any advantage? I find that mind-boggling. How can there not be an advantage to being rested? Does rust offset it?

Or are you just saying they don't adjust the lines for it.

I'm new to this, I'll believe you, but I just want to make sure I'm understanding correctly.

[/ QUOTE ]

you guys are saying similar things in different ways.

OP is really wondering how much of edge the home teams have in this round, which by neccesity takes into account a bye. since a team w/ HFA in this round had a bye, a bye becomes part of the home teams edge, even if it isn't tied to their home field.

next time, I'll try to make even less sense