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#12
05-25-2006, 09:35 AM
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Re: $3R Gutshot Hand
What's your read on him? Kinda a weird play to limp in early position, then bet out the minimium at the flop, right? Was he limping often, or rarely? Would he play a set like this (and thus full house on the turn)? What about an overpair? Personally, knowing it is a $3 + rebuy, he probably just has Ax and took a small stab at the pot. But this is absent any read whatsoever on the player, which I think makes it so we can't evaluate this hand...
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#13
05-25-2006, 11:41 AM
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Re: $3R Gutshot Hand
0evg0,
I think calling the flop and leading the turn is better than a c/r on the flop because it's got roughly the same amount of fold equity, it's cheaper, and I get more chances to hit when he doesn't fold. Funki, This only needs to work a little less than half the time to be profitable as a pure bluff (I'm paying 1600 to win 1825). The guy's hardly showing strength by minbetting in position against the blinds, so I think it works pretty often (maybe even 50%). Throw in the gutshot + over, and I think this is +EV. Granted, I'd rather do it with no clubs out there because this sucks if he has a flush draw.
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#15
05-25-2006, 12:03 PM
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Re: $3R Gutshot Hand
I really like this play against specific villians. You don't mention a read, but if he's LAGGY at all this slow him down.
But you REALLY needed to bet about1700-1900 on the turn. Your 1/2 pot bet just seems way too weak and the villian will call with many holdings. Otherwise this is definitely a gun we need to have in our arsenal. Brad
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