Satellite Bubble

locutus2002 · #1 05-23-2006, 07:03 PM

WSOP $33r - 1st is a seat, 2nd-11th pays 650, 12 pays 250.

14 players left hero is 8th in chips with ~55K.
Blinds are 3K/6K.

Folded to SB who has ~75K, and raises to 20K.

Villain's range is primarily one overcard. Two players have less than 3XBB. Hero has been actively losing his chips in the last 3 orbits.

hero has JJ?

La Brujita · #2 05-23-2006, 07:04 PM

what does hero have?

locutus2002 · #3 05-23-2006, 07:06 PM

edited.

La Brujita · #4 05-23-2006, 07:20 PM

im glad this wasnt one of those guess what i have posts.

just push preflop and take your equity edge now.

I don't think there is a close second choice, a stop and go or whatever doesnt make sense this shallow with this strong of a hand.

TheNewf · #5 05-23-2006, 07:28 PM

I can't see any reason why I wouldn't shove. I want the 11k package not $250.

SinPies · #6 05-23-2006, 07:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see any reason why I wouldn't shove. I want the 11k package not $250.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's definitely the question--does the money matter or are you playing strictly for first?

Yo Adrians! · #7 05-23-2006, 07:33 PM

I push. I don't think it's close.

locutus2002 · #8 05-23-2006, 07:43 PM

I instapushed. Villain called and showed KK IGNH, from CL to zero in a few orbits.

I remember when I first heard the phrase bubble (about a year ago), and I thought it was funny. It's really one of the most empty feelings, especially when you are alone and it's late at night.

I think you are right its an easy push. If there is no 1st place it's an easy fold. Here's my crude math.

EV(folding) ~ $500 (for my stack)
EV (pushing) = 2/3 X [$650 + $12,000 (9%-4%)] = ~$800.

very crudely my current stack is worth ~$500 dollars as I will cash most of the time.
If I push and lose I get bagel, if I win I will get at least $650 and will increase my stack from ~4% of the chips in play to 9% of the chips in play. I'm 66% against his range.

I don't care about playing for 1st, I want to make the most positive play.

ryanghall · #9 05-23-2006, 07:47 PM

This would seem to be a very easy push to me.

Ryan

TheNewf · #10 05-23-2006, 07:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care about playing for 1st, I want to make the most positive play.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that the first place prize is so much larger than any other prize that taking the most +cEV line to try to win it is almost always correct. This is not an example where it's at all close.