Do you fold?

[Wes64]

I am fairly new to Omaha and ran into the following at a 10-20 pot limit round of each (holdem and omaha high) game. What would you do?

It is a very loose game, especially in the omaha rounds. I play mostly holdem and have been playing omaha pretty tight. Game is 9 handed. My stack is approximately 1500, which is a little short. I am in seat 5, UTG with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I call. Next 2 fold. Seat 8 calls, button calls, small blind calls, big blind checks. Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet the pot. Seat 8, who is tag, calls. All fold to big blind who calls. Pot is now approximately 400. Turn is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet 400, both call. Pot is now approximately 1600. river is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I check. Seat 8 beats 500, big blind folds.
What do you do?

[Chimichonga]

You are losing to exactly 1 hand? No draw got there. I don't think you can ever fold here, given the action and the board.

The real question is whether there is any value to raising all-in on the river. If you can expect to get calls from 2-pair or worse sets here, I think there is.

[RickyG]

There is no way in hell I am folding here ever. If the guy was really TAG he would have popped top set on the turn. As it stands his river action makes no sense other than something like a rivered set, or bottom set on the flop that was waiting for safe card, or (most likely IMO) a missed draw.

While I think it's probable that you checked because you were confused, I think it worked out in your advantage. I personally can't imagine many situations where you get paid off by check/raising

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way in hell I am folding here ever. If the guy was really TAG he would have popped top set on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even in NLHE, there's no way someone would slowplay top set with those draws until the river.

[Wes64]

Those were my thoughts exactly. I thought about raising all-in, then just called. He had KK. I have no idea why he did not raise at least on the turn. I would have raised the flop if I had been in his position. The only think I can think of is the small blind was fairly week and he wanted to keep him in the hand. But that seems odd with all of those draws.

[RoundTower]

I would push for the last 480. He probably has air but occasionally he has KQT7, was really hoping for a cheap showdown, and now will make a crying call getting like 100-1. Folding would be criminal.

[leafsrock]

never fold here. i would check-raise all-in.

[greatwhite]

I would push all in, because they have shown no strength until this river. I simply can't put them on KK here. If they do end up calling I think that its far more likely that they flopped bottom set or 2 pair.

[BluffTHIS!]

There are several important points in this hand, and I will mention a couple. The first is that in any form of poker, you should always be aware that hands can be played atypically by a certain player, even when that might be incorrect for the situation. So when you don't hold the nuts, you need to seriously consider that you might be beat, as unlikely as it is.

The second point here is the question of how villain views hero, who says his PLO image is tight. To villain this probably means tight and predictable. Thus he would see hero's flop bet as much more likely to be a made hand, and one obviously worse, than a drawing hand. Therefore, he wouldn't mind giving 1 or even 2 cheaper cards to such a hand, especially since if a draw gets there he will expect hero to bet such a hand while checking others, thus allowing villain to see a cheaper river when desired.

Also, hero doesn't give villain's sidecards. If he had a decent draw to go with top set, then he would be more likely to want to keep even 2 players in the pot and not run off a worse made hand while only keeping a draw in, especially if the most likely drawing player would also bluff aggressively with a missed draw on the river when a different one got there. As well, some players will slowplay top set with no draws all the way to the river to avoid being bluffed if a draw that didn't hit one of them comes, since he would likely be put on such a draw himself.

On the river here as played, I would take hero's line against most players, which allows you to induce a bluff and not just get stacked by the nuts. For me to actually check/fold though, I would *probably* have to have seen villain slowplay a set on 2 streets in the past.

[Chimichonga]

Bluff,

I find it hard to believe that you would ever even consider folding in this spot. The mistake of making the incorrect fold here seems to be much larger than the "mistake" of getting slow-rolled for less than a buy-in.

As to Villian's play: I can certainly see the point of playing slowly here heads-up, especially if you are pretty confident that Hero is betting a made hand like second set. I can also buy the argument for playing slowly with 3 people if Villian has redraws/blockers. However, Villian is certainly playing the hand in such a way where he stands to make the minimum and lose maximum if one of the draws that he doesn't have covered hits. Sure, that hit might be one of 3-4 outs (depending on side-cards), but he is taking on a fair amount of risk by allowing others to draw cheaply to those long shots.

Even if he is not concerned about those draws hitting and him losing, he does need to be concerned about those draws killing his action. Lets say Villian has A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] KK. So, he will still win with a club or a T. However, his opponent may be frightened of those cards and should one hit, he stands to make less than the maximum a large percentage of the time.