AKo 1/2 nl. Do I value raise river?

[BGnight]

Villian is 60/14 aggro. He makes wierd bets. Hard to read. Pretty bad.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($42.80)
MP ($208.70)
Hero ($202.10)
SB ($200.75)
BB ($198.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $12.

Flop: ($39) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, MP calls $30.

Turn: ($99) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $16</font>, Hero calls $16.

River: ($131) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero???

[Liv Tyler]

It seems very possible that he has the same hand (possibly with a worse kicker.) The only other hand I can see played this way is AA, but maybe I'm suffering from a lack of imagination. Given your read of him, he could have any thing. Even against a relatively solid player, I'm tempted to raise the river. There is, however, always the possibility that reopening the action with a raise will get the pot stolen from you.

[tannenj]

why wait until the river?

[Pominos]

Why not raise the turn? His bet looks strange and is very small...

[Nielsio]

Raise the turn

[BGnight]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise the turn? His bet looks strange and is very small...

[/ QUOTE ]

because I don't see any draws and I don't know what his small bet means. If there was an obvious draw I'd probably raise turn, but I saw no harm in just calling.

[4_2_it]

Raise turn and value bet that river. If he 3-bets then you have a decision to make.

[BGnight]

Cool, so concensus seems to be to raise turn or river. I raised to $50 only on river cuz I was convinced he had AQ,AJ, but I was still a little suspicious. He had A5. Very strange. This villian likes to bet himself out of value.

[4_2_it]

If he calls your turn raise, then you have the option to check behind on the river. That board is dry so if he is willing to call a turn raise then warning sirens should be going off.

Now you have a great note on this guy. If he does this move again, then I would be comfortable considering it a tell.

[BGnight]

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls your turn raise, then you have the option to check behind on the river. That board is dry so if he is willing to call a turn raise then warning sirens should be going off.

Now you have a great note on this guy. If he does this move again, then I would be comfortable considering it a tell.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great point 4 2 it as usual. I'm still not convinced I need to raise turn when there is almost no possible draws besides 3 outers. The pot is gonna be big enough after the river w/ just TPTK. As I said before, w/ an obvious draw I'm raising that turn bet all day. I convinced myself on river he was pricing a showdown w/ a worse ace, thus my raise.