Stop n go or go go go?

EnderW27 · #1 01-11-2006, 05:47 PM

Three left in the tournament. You're in third place but not by much.
You have ~36000 chips. Tightish guy to your right has ~40000 to 45000 and chip leader dominates the table with over 100K. Probably closer to 120.

You're in the SB with ATs. Chip leader comes in for a raise of 3x BB (1200/2400/200). Leader's been getting more and more aggressive the less players there are and he has shown an increasing willingness to call players' raises all-in the more chips he gets.
You KNOW you have the best hand but you can't put leader on anything closer than two high cards.
What's your play?

Eggpie · #2 01-11-2006, 05:59 PM

There is roughly 10K in the pot, you only have 36K. Any raise is going to commit you so you seem to be looking to call or push. You believe he's going to call your all in, and you also believe you have the best hand. Whats the problem?

Puuussh!

Eggpie

EnderW27 · #3 01-11-2006, 11:00 PM

Well it's right mathematically. I had A-T. He had K-9. In theory I WANT him to call here. Mathematically I'm ahead, what? 60% of the time? But when I call and I lose I'm out. If I win we're tied for the chip lead though he might still be ahead just a tad.

So what does this gain me, moving in? 60% of the time I get close to first and still have to fight my way upwards and 40% of the time I'm out in third. Meanwhile, if I call and push on the flop I very well might take it down there. Also 15BB, while seemingly a really small number, was actually quite comfortable at that table.

Am I being results oriented? Yeah, I think so. If I won, I wouldn't have even questioned my push. But I lost on the river and so it got me thinking about the pure math of ring games versus the survival instinct of tournament games. How good is my push here knowing a) I was ahead and b) he would still call and almost certainly be right to do so?

mlagoo · #4 01-11-2006, 11:06 PM

well i mean you didnt know you were ahead. you knew you were ahead of villian's range.

you also have plenty of fold equity preflop. a push preflop is right here. this is results oriented thinking. if villian had 56s and would have folded preflop to a push, but you decide to SNG and he connects with the flop, would you think that was the wrong play as well?

SteelheadGLX · #5 01-11-2006, 11:17 PM

You're out of position. Even if you call, you're going to push when he bets into you even if you miss the flop, aren't you? Villian's LAG, what can you put him on?

freeDegas · #6 01-11-2006, 11:28 PM

Some maths:

If you fold, you can continue to fight for second with balanced chances, so say, you go home with 25% of price pool.

If you lose the hand, you go home with 20%.

If you win, and you are a 2 to 1 favorite, you are second and can fight to win with a chance of 50/50. So by winning this hand, you go home with 40% of the price pool.

So, you lose 5% once and gain 15% twice. Push.