Raise flop? Or fold maby?

snorfarfar · #1 05-19-2006, 07:49 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Hobbs. · #2 05-19-2006, 07:52 AM

turn is close. I probably c/f there

True · #3 05-19-2006, 07:53 AM

I think this is fine, when he 3-bets preflop he is pretty much going to showdown on this board. I don't think the check/raise will solve anything. If you had a read that the guy could fold, then raising the flop or the turn is fine. I would be more inclined to raise the flop and lead the turn.

True

Dave G. · #4 05-19-2006, 07:54 AM

Raising the flop does nothing. You're out of position so you can't make any free card plays or anything. You're getting enough odds with a gutshot and two overs, so check and call it.

I'd fold the turn. You're only getting 5.75:1, and only your J outs are really clean. I'd estimate your outs at 6, it's possible he has AK/AQ or AA - QQ. If he has a better K or Q, you're going to lose additional bets on the river. So this looks like a turn fold.

snorfarfar · #5 05-19-2006, 08:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop does nothing. You're out of position so you can't make any free card plays or anything. You're getting enough odds with a gutshot and two overs, so check and call it.

I'd fold the turn. You're only getting 5.75:1, and only your J outs are really clean. I'd estimate your outs at 6, it's possible he has AK/AQ or AA - QQ. If he has a better K or Q, you're going to lose additional bets on the river. So this looks like a turn fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking was that if he have AK AQ and i raise the flop and bet both turn and river with low cards the pot is mine on the river..? But maby thats to optemistic?

Dave G. · #6 05-19-2006, 09:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking was that if he have AK AQ and i raise the flop and bet both turn and river with low cards the pot is mine on the river..? But maby thats to optemistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it might work... but is it going to work often enough to be worth the investment? I doubt it very much.

First of all, he'll actually pair his hand a significant portion of the time, after which he's never folding. Secondly, he may think you're FOS and call you down anyway. Thirdly, you're banking on him having those hands... he could easily have AA - QQ here. Don't box your opponent into a hand that you'd like him to have and play it like he has it, you have to keep all reasonable holdings open as possibilities.

The last point is that this is 1/2 - any strategy where you find yourself investing a lot of bets in the hope that someone folds a better hand is a losing one here. Keep it simple and find a better spot.

The main thrust of the argument is that the chance that your play succeeds isn't high enough to justify the amount of money you have to invest to make it work.