The Deceptive Power of Folding

[fnurt]

In the section of HOH1 dealing with basic pre-flop strategy I came across an interesting recommendation from Harrington.

[ QUOTE ]
With king-queen [in early position], suited or unsuited, fold in a tough game. In a weaker game with king-queen suited, raise 50 percent of the time and call 50 percent of the time. With king-queen offsuit, call 50 percent of the time and fold 50 percent of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't really a post about KQo in early position, which I assume most people agree isn't a great hand. My question is whether anyone can explain the theory behind Harrington's recommendation.

Either KQo is +EV from early position or it's not. (My guess is that it's not, although in a sufficiently weak game anything can be profitable.)

If it is profitable, then I can't imagine why you would only play it 50 percent of the time.

If it's not profitable, we need to look a little deeper. I understand the reasoning behind occasionally playing a hand like 89s in early position; you can't be too predictable, and showing down a hand like that lets your more observant opponents know that they can't just put you on big cards in early position. My sense is that most people overdo this kind of play, particularly online where most of your opponents aren't even paying attention, but in any event I understand the theory.

But does this have anything to do with the question of whether to play KQo in early position? I can't imagine you get much deceptive value from getting in there with specifically KQ, as opposed to a suited connector that would enable you to play low cards from early position. Even assuming there's some deceptive value from playing the hand, I can't imagine you would play a hand anywhere close to 50% of the time purely for deceptive purposes.

So the question, then, is what is Harrington thinking?

[fnurt]

bump!

[adanthar]

The idea is that you want to make your opponents think you raise all big cards from EP, then proceed to just not do it very often.

[RoundTower]

Maybe it's only profitable about half the time. He has a good feel for what those times are, but it would take a whole new book for him to explain them to the public.

I'm being serious here, I think it is something like this.

[betgo]

The idea is that you raise from early position mostly with AQ+, 99+, but you mix in some weaker high card hands and some speculative hands so that it is harder for people to read what you have. Similarly, you limp with some weaker high card hands, some speculative hands, and some big pairs. Hence, the deceptive power of folding.

[LLKOOLK1]

[ QUOTE ]
The idea is that you raise from early position mostly with AQ+, 99+, but you mix in some weaker high card hands and some speculative hands so that it is harder for people to read what you have. Similarly, you limp with some weaker high card hands, some speculative hands, and some big pairs. Hence, the deceptive power of folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
yup
-LL