Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds

okayplayer · #1 05-18-2006, 05:10 PM

10/20NL, full ring. Villain is relatively tight (19/5/2), used to be pretty weak/tight (15/3/2), but he opened up his game a lil in the last month or so , but I still regard him as tight. He has $2065 and I have him covered.

Villain limps UTG, MP (TAG) raises to $80, LP calls, and I call 66 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB and Villain calls as well.

Flop ($330): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I will usually lead here, but decide to check, Villain checks, and MP bets $300, LP folds, I call (? I raise this usually but I want to see what Villain does), and Villain makes it $900, MP folds, and I...

nation · #2 05-18-2006, 05:12 PM

fold.

franchise99 · #3 05-18-2006, 05:14 PM

Your hand is garbage here. Easy fold. Wouldnt have called a bet in the first place.

Prevaricator · #4 05-18-2006, 05:15 PM

i would have check folded the flop.

EmpireMaker2 · #5 05-18-2006, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i would have check folded the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

9cao · #6 05-18-2006, 06:05 PM

Villain screen name?

creedofhubris · #7 05-18-2006, 07:09 PM

Look at it from villain's POV: a TAG raises preflop (from MP, not from a steal position) and leads for the pot. A strong player cold-calls the flop bet. Two players have shown a lot of interest in this pot. And STILL he throws out a raise. This is representing a great deal of strength from a tight villain (alb? stackinoff?).

Stacks are shallow compared to the size of his bet, your outs are obvious. There's really no point in continuing. I think your initial flop call was dubious as well.

Lucky · #8 05-18-2006, 07:56 PM

i dont like your play on this hand. Your sixes arent nearly as good a hand as you seem to think.

okayplayer · #9 05-18-2006, 08:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Look at it from villain's POV: a TAG raises preflop (from MP, not from a steal position) and leads for the pot. A strong player cold-calls the flop bet. Two players have shown a lot of interest in this pot. And STILL he throws out a raise. This is representing a great deal of strength from a tight villain (alb? stackinoff?).

Stacks are shallow compared to the size of his bet, your outs are obvious. There's really no point in continuing. I think your initial flop call was dubious as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, good guess, it was Stackinoff.

I am kinda surprised so many people would check/fold the flop. I am 50/50 vs TT+/AK, and by calling I get to see what the other player does without necessarily committing myself (which I hadn't made a decision to do yet). Once he raised, and the raiser folded, I had a decision to make...

I figured if he had a set (which I likely thought he had), then a push would be slightly +EV, but if he had a flush already (like AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which he could certainly limp in EP) I am toast and drawing to a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or runner runner FH. So I opted to fold.

But after I ran the numbers, I think this is much closer than everyone is saying. I am ~41% vs a set (which I think is most likely), and if I include AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then I am ~37.8%, and only when I include AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], do I get ~35%, where it is -EV. And this is with even weighting, I would say a set is most likely followed by AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] . Of course, he could have another flush combo, but I find it rather unlikely that he limp calls with any of those hands in EP, but I guess it is possible since he had opened his game up a little.

Meh.

creedofhubris · #10 05-18-2006, 09:02 PM

OK, how about this:

there is no chance that villain is folding to a push, having put in half his stack. Your only play here is a push. If you push, in the best case you are slightly +EV, and in the worst case you are hugely -EV.

PS I think villain's range is wider than you suggest here, although if you have stats that say otherwise I'd believe you; he's calling that PF raise closing the action 4-way, and he limps a lot with suited connectors.