Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush

[luckydonut]

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero wants to die.


Are we absolutely 100% certain that villain holds K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, probably with another king? Can we sleep soundly after folding? Can we call without the only reason being that you can hit "show cards" in a pathetic kind of way whilst he takes down the pot?

Does anyone really raise without the nuts here?

Well a player who had read my hand perfectly might have a crack at the pot with two red queens or kings, but have you ever seen that happen at $2/$4?

I folded, proud of my discipline at first, but it's really eating me now... Am I actually ahead 1 time in 14?

[shadow.]

std fold

[lautzutao]

I'm not 93% sure, so I call. This is definitely a card to bluff against an opponent who's prone to folding.

Another reason is specifically so you CAN sleep soundly, should you fold and he flip over KcTh.

[GrandmaStabone]

-grunch-

I wouldnt fold here. When he raises, you are getting almost 15-1 to call, are you over 95% sure he has a flush? i think you will snap off a bluff or a donked 2 pair/set enough times to make a profitable call here.

reads would be nice, but it would take a pretty strong read to make me fold here, actually - even then i probably wouldnt. with a set of aces, i cant imagine a scenario where i would fold for one more bet in a 15 bet pot.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
std fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this the whole point of the Clarkmeister?

[nomadtla]

Here's a question, and maybe I am way out of line.

What does a bet on this river do for us?

- No one is calling with a hand we beat.
- Few are folding a hand that beats us. Maybe a straight but those are very unlikely given the PF action
- The hands we do fold on this river we would much rather they try and bluff at it.

Asside from folding the unlikely straight, or a really low [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (also unlikely given PF). I don't see the value in betting, and I feel much beter calling if it's more likely to be a bluff. But feel free to point out the holes in my logic here.

[BeeRye]

I'm probably missing something here but why not check/call the river in this case? It costs the same as bet/fold and you get your shot at the pot. My thinking is that I want to get that set to showdown, but with the fourth spade, I want to do it cheaply.

All that being said, my post is probably reeking from my lack of experience.

[BigTurkey]

I like check/call on teh river. In live games I would consider check/folding against passive weenies.

Change the flop to X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and it get's interesting. IF we cannnot bet/fold, is bet/call still better than check/call?

[GrandmaStabone]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably missing something here but why not check/call the river in this case? It costs the same as bet/fold and you get your shot at the pot. My thinking is that I want to get that set to showdown, but with the fourth spade, I want to do it cheaply.

All that being said, my post is probably reeking from my lack of experience.

[/ QUOTE ]


I've been away for awhile, but if I remember correctly the idea of the clarkmeister is, when the fourth suit drops and you dont have it, you should bet out of position. The logic being that any non flush hand will fold, giving you the pot, and any made flush will raise, letting you fold with a clear conscience.

That being said, i dont like this line here.

[lautzutao]

So anytime I smell a clarmeister unfolding before my eyes I should raise? Is the OOP bettor going to have a flush card enough to call?