PLO8 - $100 - Blind battle

[MarkD]

The villian here is 25/1/1.1 and seems to play ok postflop. He definitely has more experience at this game than me. I was really unsure how to play this hand. On the turn I debated CR'ing but pussied out.

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $87.92
UTG+1: $86.58
MP1: $93.85
CO: $82.20
Button: $40.22
Hero: $104.45
BB: $136.17

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, BB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5.7</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($16.4, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $16.55</font>, Hero calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($49.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $48</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $48 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $49.5

[wiseheart]

Uh...BB has low cards 23, 24, 25 etc..

I don't like how you played this hand
and I don't like the fold. Against the
BB Im pretty sure I would pot repot here
everytime, unless BB is a rock.

I mean he can only have these hands to
scoop you: AKww A7ww A6ww
w=wheel card

otherwise you are getting &gt;=half

[MarkD]

When he called the pot I put him on an ace. Maybe that's too weak of me but that's what I put him on. Here was my basic thought process:

I didn't think a good player would call on this flop with just a low draw given that my hand should contain an ace given my pre-flop / flop play. Why would a bare low draw want to invest a lot of chips here? I didn't think he was just on a bare low. I would flod a bare low on this flop.

Therefor, he's on an ace. If he is on an ace he most likely has some sort of low cards to back it up. AXWW has me killed. If he doesn't have AXWW then he could easily have a tight so I'm killed again. [censored], I built this into a medium size pot - if I check maybe he will check behind. Nope, [censored]. I've got a horrible low and lots of high potential (I may be ahead and if not I have draws) maybe I should check raise. Bah, I'll see a cheap river and see if I like it.

I didn't like the river. I thought the best I could do was win half and a lot of the time I would win less, thus, I'm putting in P (pot) to win less than 0.5P those times that I don't lose. It felt like a very close to zero decisioin (actually felt -EV based on my previously play and above thinking) and I folded.

I'm new to the game and am slightly looking to keep decisions simple to gain confidence, feel, and money. I will sacrifice a tiny EV to do that until I get better.

Having said all of that I think that bet/all-in on the turn has a lot of merit.

[Bruce_Wayne]

I agree with Smartheart here, bad fold. If you're heads up you will rarely be in a situation in which an opponent will have you in bad shape both ways.

If he doesn't have a full house then you have the best high hand by virtue of your Queen kicker. If he does have the boat then you prob are good for the low end.

I wouldn't have slowed down on the turn, keep potting it all the way.

[MarkD]

I’ve been thinking about this a bit so I did an EV analysis. This is one of the first EV analysis that I’ve done for O8 so would appreciate if something checks it and sees if I screwed up.

I’ve assigned percentages based on my own thoughts. I have not attempted any type of
percentages quite easily. This is just in respect to calling the river. I feel that if this is +EV then it must be +EV for me to lead the turn and then 3-bet all in.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
win both 5.00%
lose both 25.00%
win high 35.00%
win low 25.00%
get quartered 10.00%
total 100.00%

Pot size $ 49.50
Bet Size $ 48.00
My investment $ 48.00

EV scoop $ 4.88
EV lose both $ (12.00)
EV win high $ 8.66
EV win low $ 6.19
EV quarter $ (1.16)
EV total $ 6.56

</pre><hr />

I would have to get scooped 40% of the time here to make this call on the river –EV. I’m still learning this game and didn’t have an appreciation for just how often I need to get scooped to make this fold correct.

I am hoping some more people weigh in but atm I think I should have just lead the turn here, and that I should have called the river bet.

[januarymute]

Keep leading on the turn. If you get raised, just get it all-in. He has to have a 4-card hand to scoop you.