River donk bets in nl

[Mahatma]

A common situation where I play. How do I approach this and what else should I consider?

Hero is on the CO with AKo, raises $3.5 1st in
BB calls and it's heads up. His range is any PP or broadway, plus some other stuff.

Flop is $7.50 and brings down the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villian checks
Hero bets $5 (that's my standard 2/3 pot bet. how often should I be checking behind, with the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and without the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?)
Villian calls, which means either AA, 77,33,AT+ or diamonds.

Turn is a blank and the pot is $17.50.
Now, villian has a reputation of donking the river for a pot sized bet if Hero checks behind. I haven't seen him showdown yet but I'm thinking that a fair amount of these river bets are busted draws and other hands that are behind tptk.

Now here's where I get lost. Say that villian has trips 10% of the time and will check-raise my turn bet, and I fold 100% of the time when this happens and lose 17.5bb. 90% of the time he will call my turn bet with about 30% equity when he does call with a range of ATo+ and KT,KJ,KQ,QT,QJ,JT of diamonds.

What should I be doing on the turn when checked to and using the following information:
1. Villian will pot any card if I check it through.
2. Villian will always call a turn pot sized bet.

Also, if we were villian, how would we decide when to bluff the river with a busto draw?

[RagnarPirate]

The question is: if you check the turn, will you call the pot-sized bet on the river when a flush card hits?

By your rules he is going to put one pot sized bet in no matter what. It is either to call you on the turn or to lead out on the river.

Now if he already has a set you lose the same amount either way (you bet 1P then fold to re-raise on turn or you call river 1P and lose).

If he is on the draw and the board misses it is a wash. Either he called the turn or bet the river (1 pot from him).

But, if he is on the draw and a flush card comes on the river it makes a difference. If you bet turn, he called turn, he value bet river, AND you called this then you are worse off by the amount of the value bet. If you fold to the river bet when the flush card comes you save the value bet BUT you may have layed down the better hand to a bluff. For this reason I think the check is better on the turn, then call the river bet (or lay it down if you have a read on the flush).

BTW the best move for him is to re-raise every turn bet since you will lay it down 100% of the time (although he is unaware of this).

[rufus]

Right off the bat:
If your opponent raises with a made set, then by folding you're not loosing $17.5. Consider that even if he doesn't raise, you're still looking at a 2-outer to win the pot.

I would say that you should (almost) never check behind in that situation unless you have some sort of read -- like your oponent likes to slow-play sets -- especially if you're holding the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] since you're soundly beating most of his possible holdings.

With the luxury of time, we can do some quick analysis on his hand:

You say if he calls, he's got:
AA (1), 77 (6), 33 (6), or (13)
any two diamonds (technically 45, but realisitcally probably 20-25 considering villain started in BB), or (
AT (7), AJ (7), AQ (7), AK (5 (+1 if you hold K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) (21-22)

So, unless he's got a proclivity to play suited hands, I'd say the chance that he's holding a set going to be closer to 20% than 10%.

Now, let's take a look at your scenario:
Let's say you've got .8 (chance he's got a drawing hand) * .8 (chance he doesn't hit the river) = .64 return on your raise, so raising 17.5 BB with a guaranteed call is net worth about ev +5 BB.
Of course, if you *know* that he's going to pot if you check through, then you obviously want to do that instead, since you'll have more information. Only calling hands where his (possible) draws missed your grows the net ev to about +8.5 BB.

The ideal bluff rate is:
(the apparent chance that the hand was legit) * (the raise) / (the raise + the pot)

Assuming he knows everything you know, and he pot raises, he should be making about half as many bluffs as legitemate raises.

[RagnarPirate]

I'm confused. What are his 2 outs?
a set for hero gives villain a full house.

And it was stated in the problem that he would check-raise the set.

And it was stated in the problem that he would pot-bet the river when the turn was checked down.

With these criteria it is best to check the turn. Villain's action is the same regardless, but you have added information with the additional card. The only way that betting the turn would be better is if you expect to gain EV on both the turn and river. And this is highly unlikely since he will fold to a river re-raise when he misses his draw (the only scenario where he called turn and you would bet river).

[rufus]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused. What are his 2 outs?
a set for hero gives villain a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gah, brain fart. My point was that the money in the pot isn't hero's money anymore.